TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138960
Played Sep 16Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11615137111311––
Mateusz Baran
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:28 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 87 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 56.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 1–1 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1584 vs Baran 1333
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 251 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 100% vs Baran 60%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 80% vs Baran 50%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +5 · Baran +1
Kwiatkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.44 / Baran 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13138960
Kwiatkowski1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Baran2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 20 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back29% 9 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski1wins
AwayBaran1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiBaranK − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.529.0+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 243 vs 71 / 13244.4%53.8%108 / 243 vs 71 / 132Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.44/Baran 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 26 · 04:40K. Kwiatkowski341112113M. Baran2141070
LAug 25 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski33115981M. Baran3741111113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771
M. Baran10
WSep 16 · 15:25A. Skupinski2.256740M. Baran1.571111113LSep 16 · 04:40J. Skorupa1.957141111113M. Baran1.77111261342LSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960WSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113WSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113LSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111WSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113LAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 16 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski1.33A. Skupinski3.25—Sep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.44M. Baran2.63—Sep 16 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Machelski2.10—Sep 17 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski1.80J. Skorupa1.91—Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——
M. Baran
Sep 16 · 18:10M. Baran1.67M. Machelski2.10—Sep 16 · 19:20M. Baran2.20A. Fomin1.61—Sep 16 · 20:30M. Baran2.10M. Lewczuk1.67—Sep 16 · 21:20M. Baran2.10J. Skorupa1.67—Sep 16 · 22:55M. Baran2.63K. Kwiatkowski1.44—Sep 17 · 24:10M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 17 · 01:25M. Baran2.20A. Fomin1.61—Sep 17 · 02:35M. Baran1.67M. Machelski2.10—Sep 17 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 17 · 16:35M. Baran—G. Mucha——
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