TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136321
Played Sep 16Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.92
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
011811118411––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.72
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
011811118411––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 2–1 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Michalik beat Baran 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:41What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (53%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1431 vs Baran 1332
Michalik
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 80% vs Baran 60%
Michalik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Baran 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +1 · Baran +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.92 / Baran 1.72
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalik)+6.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13136321
Michalik1.92
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 105
Baran1.72
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMichalik2wins
AwayBaran1wins
Michalik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik66.7%2 of 3
AwayBarann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik3Baran0n = 3Michalik took 3 of 3
S2Michalik1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S3Michalik1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S4Michalik2Baran1n = 3Michalik took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMichalikBaranM − BBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match37.032.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 1164 vs 69 / 12847.3%53.9%550 / 1164 vs 69 / 128Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.92/Baran 1.72
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik3911611113M. Baran27611641
WAug 26 · 02:20J. Michalik4111118113M. Baran30661171
LJul 21 · 24:30J. Michalik311172111M. Baran3941111133
J. Michalik10
WSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113LSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133WSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641WSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 02:45J. Michalik1.46116531A. Staniczek2.4031111113LSep 15 · 01:10J. Michalik2.65581161M. Warzecha1.3811118113LSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113
M. Baran10
WSep 16 · 01:10M. Brunner1.95115661M. Baran1.7581111113WSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113LSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111WSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113LSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641LSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852LSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113
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