TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130044
Played Sep 15Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1194117111113––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.07
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:51 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1194117111113––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 5–6 Mateusz Karpiuk Jerzy Michalik has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Michalik beat Karpiuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:51What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (56%)
Michalik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1447 vs Karpiuk 1251
Michalik
Wrong
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 100% vs Karpiuk 20%
Michalik
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 70% vs Karpiuk 20%
Michalik
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +5 · Karpiuk -1
Michalik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.62 / Karpiuk 2.07
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Michalik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13130044
Michalik1.62
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 134 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it76% 96 of 127
Karpiuk2.07
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik5wins
AwayKarpiuk5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik50%4 of 8
AwayKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik8Karpiuk2n = 10Michalik took 8 of 10
S2Michalik4Karpiuk6n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S3Michalik5Karpiuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Michalik7Karpiuk3n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S5Michalik1Karpiuk5n = 6Karpiuk took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikKarpiukM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.845.1−3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime549 / 1162 vs 124 / 28747.3%43.2%549 / 1162 vs 124 / 287Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.62/Karpiuk 2.07
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik4381113113M. Karpiuk391191181
WSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik4311138113M. Karpiuk399111181
LAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik4411911762M. Karpiuk48811711113
WAug 9 · 01:00J. Michalik3911611113M. Karpiuk35811791
LAug 8 · 18:55J. Michalik38111031132M. Karpiuk50712119113
LJul 20 · 23:20J. Michalik42111041162M. Karpiuk51812119113
WJul 15 · 22:10J. Michalik4111118113M. Karpiuk33871171
LJul 15 · 19:40J. Michalik4451312772M. Karpiuk5411111011113
WJul 13 · 22:10J. Michalik49129134113M. Karpiuk521011111192
LJul 6 · 21:00J. Michalik3511331172M. Karpiuk50911118113
J. Michalik10
WSep 16 · 24:45K. Rybak3.951111681J. Michalik1.2013611113WSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120WSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641WSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 02:45J. Michalik1.46116531A. Staniczek2.4031111113LSep 15 · 01:10J. Michalik2.65581161M. Warzecha1.3811118113LSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113WSep 14 · 22:25J. Michalik1.9011114113J. Cyndera1.75931161
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113WSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113LSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113LSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38119891Z. Nocun1.5381111113LSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113
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