TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134324
Played Sep 15Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.92
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116611116114––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.72
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
116611116114––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 1–1 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:29What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (53%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1411 vs Baran 1325
Michalik
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 50% vs Baran 30%
Michalik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +2 · Baran -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.92 / Baran 1.72
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalik)+6.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13134324
Michalik1.92
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 105
Baran1.72
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMichalik1wins
AwayBaran1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMichalikBaranM − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match36.034.5+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 1159 vs 66 / 12347.1%53.7%546 / 1159 vs 66 / 123Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.92/Baran 1.72
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 26 · 02:20J. Michalik4111118113M. Baran30661171
LJul 21 · 24:30J. Michalik311172111M. Baran3941111133
J. Michalik10
WSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 02:45J. Michalik1.46116531A. Staniczek2.4031111113LSep 15 · 01:10J. Michalik2.65581161M. Warzecha1.3811118113LSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113WSep 14 · 22:25J. Michalik1.9011114113J. Cyndera1.75931161WSep 14 · 21:10J. Michalik2.15111111113A. Zmijewski1.55661351WSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk1.438980J. Michalik2.501111113LSep 11 · 03:30W. Stechly4.0551117113J. Michalik1.181191581LSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113
M. Baran10
LSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852LSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113
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M. Baran
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