TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134331
Played Sep 15Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911711114118115
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
911711114118115
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 1–4 Mateusz Baran Piotr Gesiarz has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:30What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Baran
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1366 vs Baran 1335
Gesiarz
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 80% vs Baran 40%
Gesiarz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 70% vs Baran 30%
Gesiarz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Baran -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baran)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.85 / Baran 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baran)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13134331
Gesiarz1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Baran1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeGesiarz1wins
AwayBaran4wins
4 of 5 to a deciderBaran leads 4–1, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz33.3%1 of 3
AwayBarann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz3Baran2n = 5Gesiarz took 3 of 5
S2Gesiarz3Baran2n = 5Gesiarz took 3 of 5
S3Gesiarz5Baran0n = 5Gesiarz took 5 of 5
S4Gesiarz0Baran4n = 4Baran took 4 of 4
S5Gesiarz0Baran4n = 4Baran took 4 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away480%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricGesiarzBaranG − BBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match44.643.8+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 307 vs 66 / 12246.9%54.1%144 / 307 vs 66 / 122Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranGesiarz 1.85/Baran 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 31 · 15:30P. Gesiarz50111112972M. Baran527131011113
LAug 2 · 01:45P. Gesiarz49111111882M. Baran52139811113
WAug 1 · 16:15P. Gesiarz331111113M. Baran187560
LJul 18 · 21:20P. Gesiarz4391111752M. Baran46116711113
LJul 18 · 15:25P. Gesiarz48121011782M. Baran511012711113
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113WSep 14 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.8069111142P. Gesiarz1.90111199113WSep 14 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.417311101P. Gesiarz2.5511115123WSep 14 · 17:10P. Gesiarz1.461111113A. Staniczek2.425350LSep 14 · 16:00P. Gesiarz1.28115991D. Maszczynski3.1581111113WSep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.831111113J. Skorupa1.838690WSep 13 · 24:35K. Gudzik1.61117481P. Gesiarz2.0861111113LSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.44119612123D. Maszczynski2.639111110102
M. Baran10
LSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641LSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113
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