TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130048
Played Sep 15Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111179111210118
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.06
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
9111179111210118
H2H Jakub Skorupa 2–4 Mateusz Karpiuk Jakub Skorupa has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (56%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Karpiuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1439 vs Karpiuk 1252
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 40% vs Karpiuk 0%
Skorupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 70% vs Karpiuk 20%
Skorupa
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa -2 · Karpiuk -5
Karpiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 1.62 / Karpiuk 2.06
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Skorupa)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13130048
Skorupa1.62
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 148 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it76% 97 of 128
Karpiuk2.06
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSkorupa2wins
AwayKarpiuk4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupa33.3%1 of 3
AwayKarpiuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa3Karpiuk3n = 6split evenly
S2Skorupa4Karpiuk2n = 6Skorupa took 4 of 6
S3Skorupa2Karpiuk4n = 6Karpiuk took 4 of 6
S4Skorupa3Karpiuk2n = 5Skorupa took 3 of 5
S5Skorupa1Karpiuk3n = 4Karpiuk took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSkorupaKarpiukS − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match43.044.3−1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 645 vs 123 / 28448.2%43.3%311 / 645 vs 123 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaSkorupa 1.62/Karpiuk 2.06
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 1 · 24:50J. Skorupa4511813582M. Karpiuk539111111113
WAug 31 · 19:20J. Skorupa501011711113M. Karpiuk4612911772
WAug 31 · 01:25J. Skorupa381413113M. Karpiuk32121190
LAug 30 · 19:20J. Skorupa421411891M. Karpiuk4716911113
LJul 20 · 24:35J. Skorupa4211741192M. Karpiuk45411118113
LJul 19 · 18:30J. Skorupa41101151142M. Karpiuk43125114113
J. Skorupa10
WSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113LSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.831111113J. Skorupa1.838690WSep 13 · 01:25D. Maszczynski3.40111060J. Skorupa1.301312113WSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153WSep 12 · 19:20D. Maszczynski3.25114531J. Skorupa1.3391111113WSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113LSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38119891Z. Nocun1.5381111113LSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970LSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113WSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101
Upcoming Matches
J. Skorupa
M. Karpiuk
Sep 15 · 20:45M. Karpiuk2.05P. Gesiarz1.65—Sep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.22M. Baran1.54—Sep 15 · 23:05M. Karpiuk1.81M. Brunner1.83—Sep 15 · 23:55M. Karpiuk2.07J. Michalik1.62—Sep 16 · 01:30M. Karpiuk2.06J. Skorupa1.62—Sep 16 · 02:45M. Karpiuk1.81M. Brunner1.83—Sep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk2.22M. Baran1.54—Sep 16 · 05:05M. Karpiuk1.25K. Rybak3.35—
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