TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125415
Played Sep 14Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811711––––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 72.9% is still 72.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
72.9%
72.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 57 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 72.9%
57 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 12–4 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Lewczuk
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1397 vs Karpiuk 1274
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 60% vs Karpiuk 20%
Lewczuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Karpiuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -1 · Karpiuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.40 / Karpiuk 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Lewczuk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125415
Lewczuk1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 167 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it83% 126 of 151
Karpiuk2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk7wins
AwayKarpiuk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk80%4 of 5
AwayKarpiuk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk5Karpiuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Lewczuk6Karpiuk4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S3Lewczuk6Karpiuk4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S4Lewczuk5Karpiuk2n = 7Lewczuk took 5 of 7
S5Lewczuk2Karpiuk1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukKarpiukL − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.035.0+5.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 960 vs 122 / 27751.5%44%494 / 960 vs 122 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.40/Karpiuk 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 22:10M. Lewczuk581391211133M. Karpiuk501511103112
WSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk45111112113M. Karpiuk32651471
WAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk43111110113M. Karpiuk35951291
WAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk3741111113M. Karpiuk25117431
WAug 24 · 22:30M. Lewczuk331111113M. Karpiuk279990
LAug 24 · 15:00M. Lewczuk45116111072M. Karpiuk48811612113
LAug 21 · 01:55M. Lewczuk2881280M. Karpiuk361114113
WAug 20 · 19:55M. Lewczuk47861111113M. Karpiuk4111112982
LAug 17 · 21:20M. Lewczuk30711931M. Karpiuk3911611113
WAug 17 · 15:25M. Lewczuk341112113M. Karpiuk1761010
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590WSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113LSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962LSep 14 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.07123981K. Rybak7.50101111113LSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.537111111112G. Mucha2.38117135133WSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133LSep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.731112951A. Kubiak2.00131011113WSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970LSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113WSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.20101111123G. Mucha1.611297101LSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162LSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123WSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771LSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
M. Karpiuk
Sep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38G. Mucha1.53—Sep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.75M. Lewczuk1.40—Sep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38Z. Nocun1.53—Sep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.00K. Gudzik1.73—Sep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk2.63J. Zelezik1.44—Sep 15 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—J. Michalik——Sep 15 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 15 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——Sep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——Sep 15 · 23:05M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——
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