TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125251
Played Sep 14Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118911119116
Michal Guzik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 96 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Guzik at 58.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 6–2 Michal Guzik Michal Guzik has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Lewczuk beat Guzik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1398 vs Guzik 1498
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Guzik 70%
Guzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -2 · Guzik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.38 / Guzik 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Guzik)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125251
Lewczuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 65 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 68
Guzik1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite74% won 120 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it89% 88 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLewczuk6wins
AwayGuzik2wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLewczuk leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk80%4 of 5
AwayGuzik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk5Guzik3n = 8Lewczuk took 5 of 8
S2Lewczuk5Guzik3n = 8Lewczuk took 5 of 8
S3Lewczuk3Guzik5n = 8Guzik took 5 of 8
S4Lewczuk3Guzik3n = 6split evenly
S5Lewczuk3Guzik0n = 3Lewczuk took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricLewczukGuzikL − GBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match39.639.4+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 956 vs 136 / 19051.5%71.6%492 / 956 vs 136 / 190Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikLewczuk 2.38/Guzik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk51911911113M. Guzik4511811962
WSep 13 · 16:15M. Lewczuk44121110113M. Guzik351061271
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk371115113M. Guzik2561360
LSep 6 · 16:15M. Lewczuk209920M. Guzik331111113
LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk20111621M. Guzik4181111113
WSep 3 · 16:15M. Lewczuk47151146113M. Guzik44132111172
WAug 18 · 01:10M. Lewczuk546161110113M. Guzik52111481272
WAug 17 · 16:15M. Lewczuk4411616113M. Guzik406111491
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 14 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.07123981K. Rybak7.50101111113LSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.537111111112G. Mucha2.38117135133WSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133LSep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.731112951A. Kubiak2.00131011113WSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471WSep 13 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.061212183K. Rybak8.001010160WSep 13 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.5011711173G. Mucha2.505116151WSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113LSep 13 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.73861191A. Kubiak2.0011119113LSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581
M. Guzik10
LSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.006780LSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
Sep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—M. Karpiuk——Sep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—M. Karpiuk——Sep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—G. Mucha——Sep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——
M. Guzik
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