TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13124018
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171131214115––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 74 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Michal Guzik at 60.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 3–3 Mateusz Karpiuk Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:23What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1449 vs Karpiuk 1280
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 40% vs Karpiuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 40% vs Karpiuk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +1 · Karpiuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.40 / Karpiuk 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13124018
Guzik1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 120 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it89% 88 of 99
Karpiuk2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGuzik3wins
AwayKarpiuk3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik66.7%2 of 3
AwayKarpiuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik3Karpiuk3n = 6split evenly
S2Guzik2Karpiuk4n = 6Karpiuk took 4 of 6
S3Guzik4Karpiuk2n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S4Guzik4Karpiuk1n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGuzikKarpiukG − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.741.7−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 183 vs 118 / 26671.6%44.4%131 / 183 vs 118 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.40/Karpiuk 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 17 · 23:50M. Guzik4212125133M. Karpiuk42101011111
WAug 17 · 20:30M. Guzik3851111113M. Karpiuk35119871
LJul 19 · 23:20M. Guzik43310131162M. Karpiuk531112118113
LJul 19 · 17:20M. Guzik183690M. Karpiuk331111113
LJul 16 · 22:10M. Guzik49117129102M. Karpiuk517111011123
WJul 16 · 19:40M. Guzik4212811113M. Karpiuk361011781
M. Guzik10
WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.22111173G. Mucha4.006750LSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133LSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 02:20W. Stechly7.102490M. Guzik1.041111113WSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171LSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113LSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471WSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
M. Karpiuk
Sep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38G. Mucha1.53—Sep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.00M. Lewczuk1.36—Sep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.30K. Rybak3.40—Sep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Guzik1.33—Sep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.38A. Kubiak1.53—Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 18:55M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——
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