TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13123708
Played Sep 13Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1168111513115––
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:10 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 80 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Artur Kubiak at 67.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 4–8 Artur Kubiak Mateusz Karpiuk has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:10What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kubiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Kubiak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1264 vs Kubiak 1384
Kubiak
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 20% vs Kubiak 80%
Kubiak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 20% vs Kubiak 40%
Kubiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -1 · Kubiak +4
Kubiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.38 / Kubiak 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Kubiak)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13123708
Karpiuk2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Kubiak1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 157 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 109 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk3wins
AwayKubiak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk60%3 of 5
AwayKubiak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk5Kubiak4n = 9Karpiuk took 5 of 9
S2Karpiuk1Kubiak8n = 9Kubiak took 8 of 9
S3Karpiuk4Kubiak5n = 9Kubiak took 5 of 9
S4Karpiuk5Kubiak3n = 8Karpiuk took 5 of 8
S5Karpiuk1Kubiak2n = 3Kubiak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukKubiakKarpiuk − KubiakBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.041.6−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 265 vs 503 / 91244.2%55.2%117 / 265 vs 503 / 912Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakKarpiuk 2.38/Kubiak 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.2%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 17 · 24:10M. Karpiuk391337161A. Kubiak51111111183
WAug 16 · 20:30M. Karpiuk4212511143A. Kubiak3710114121
LJul 20 · 22:35M. Karpiuk28213671A. Kubiak44111111113
LJul 20 · 15:00M. Karpiuk257990A. Kubiak331111113
LJul 16 · 01:45M. Karpiuk34891161A. Kubiak3411111113
WJul 15 · 16:15M. Karpiuk531181211113A. Kubiak4591114832
LJul 13 · 01:45M. Karpiuk52119121192A. Kubiak501311105113
LJul 12 · 16:15M. Karpiuk4111551192A. Kubiak49711119113
WJun 29 · 15:25M. Karpiuk3711411113A. Kubiak31611681
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471LSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102
A. Kubiak10
WSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113WSep 13 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.73861191A. Kubiak2.0011119113WSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113WSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151LSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113LSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38G. Mucha1.53—Sep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.00M. Lewczuk1.36—Sep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.30K. Rybak3.40—Sep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Guzik1.33—Sep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.38A. Kubiak1.53—Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 18:55M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——
A. Kubiak
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