TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120936
Played Sep 13Finished
Artur Kubiak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1198111210119––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Kubiak above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 81 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 66.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Artur Kubiak 4–12 Grzegorz Mucha Artur Kubiak has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Mucha
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1368 vs Mucha 1407
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 80% vs Mucha 40%
Kubiak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 40% vs Mucha 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak -1 · Mucha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 2.00 / Mucha 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Mucha)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13120936
Kubiak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 73 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 74
Mucha1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 82 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it100% 42 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubiak3wins
AwayMucha7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMucha leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubiak66.7%2 of 3
AwayMucha85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubiak3Mucha7n = 10Mucha took 7 of 10
S2Kubiak4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S3Kubiak4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S4Kubiak4Mucha4n = 8split evenly
S5Kubiak2Mucha3n = 5Mucha took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubiakMuchaK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.543.8−5.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 912 vs 133 / 26555.2%50.2%503 / 912 vs 133 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaKubiak 2.00/Mucha 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 23:35A. Kubiak3981131162G. Mucha49118118113
LAug 22 · 17:35A. Kubiak32813471G. Mucha44111111113
LAug 16 · 22:35A. Kubiak2491050G. Mucha341112113
WAug 16 · 15:00A. Kubiak50711118133G. Mucha46114911112
LAug 13 · 24:10A. Kubiak166640G. Mucha331111113
LAug 12 · 20:30A. Kubiak4688111182G. Mucha50111189113
LAug 4 · 02:10A. Kubiak44111210111G. Mucha4891412133
WAug 3 · 20:05A. Kubiak4011711113G. Mucha36911791
WJul 12 · 21:45A. Kubiak46114911113G. Mucha4591111682
LJul 12 · 17:45A. Kubiak48714115112G. Mucha531112611133
A. Kubiak10
LSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113WSep 13 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.73861191A. Kubiak2.0011119113WSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113WSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151LSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113LSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113
G. Mucha10
WSep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.0012111071G. Mucha1.14101312113LSep 13 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.5011711173G. Mucha2.505116151WSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133LSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.22111173G. Mucha4.006750WSep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.281111133D. Maszczynski3.5041110LSep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00871161T. Kocik1.2211116113WSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113
Upcoming Matches
A. Kubiak
G. Mucha1 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha1.53M. Karpiuk2.38—Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha4.00M. Guzik1.22—Sep 13 · 23:20G. Mucha2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 14 · 01:25G. Mucha1.67A. Kubiak2.10—Sep 14 · 02:10G. Mucha1.14K. Rybak5.00—Sep 14 · 15:00G. Mucha—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 14 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 19:20G. Mucha—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 20:05G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——
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