TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120935
Played Sep 13Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
5.00
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
121011131012711––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.14
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 79.9% is still 79.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
79.9%
79.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKazimierz Rybak above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 86 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 79.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 1–5 Grzegorz Mucha Kazimierz Rybak has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Mucha
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1064 vs Mucha 1394
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 329 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 0% vs Mucha 40%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 0% vs Mucha 50%
Mucha
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -5 · Mucha -2
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 5.00 / Mucha 1.14
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Mucha)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13120935
Rybak5.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 51 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 104
Mucha1.14
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 82 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it100% 42 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRybak1wins
AwayMucha5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderMucha leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMucha100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak2Mucha4n = 6Mucha took 4 of 6
S2Rybak1Mucha5n = 6Mucha took 5 of 6
S3Rybak1Mucha5n = 6Mucha took 5 of 6
S4Rybak1Mucha2n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricRybakMuchaR − MBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match32.738.0−5.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 492 vs 133 / 26623.6%50%116 / 492 vs 133 / 266Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaRybak 5.00/Mucha 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 3 · 24:10K. Rybak33116881G. Mucha3961111113
LAug 2 · 20:30K. Rybak2791080G. Mucha341112113
WJun 21 · 21:45K. Rybak501151111123G. Mucha38311131102
LJun 21 · 17:45K. Rybak249690G. Mucha331111113
LJun 18 · 22:10K. Rybak204970G. Mucha331111113
LJun 18 · 19:40K. Rybak42101211632G. Mucha511210711113
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.061212183K. Rybak8.001010160LSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak4.009990K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113LAug 19 · 04:20K. Rybak3.07117791P. Gesiarz1.3391111113
G. Mucha10
LSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091LSep 13 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.5011711173G. Mucha2.505116151WSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133LSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.22111173G. Mucha4.006750WSep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.281111133D. Maszczynski3.5041110LSep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00871161T. Kocik1.2211116113WSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113
Upcoming Matches
K. Rybak
G. Mucha1 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha1.53M. Karpiuk2.38—Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha4.00M. Guzik1.22—Sep 13 · 23:20G. Mucha2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 14 · 01:25G. Mucha1.67A. Kubiak2.10—Sep 14 · 02:10G. Mucha1.14K. Rybak5.00—Sep 14 · 15:00G. Mucha—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 14 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 19:20G. Mucha—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 20:05G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——
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