TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13123711
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111181315114118
Kazimierz Rybak
Away
8.50
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:10 and never touched — 82.4% is still 82.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
82.4%
82.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Kazimierz Rybak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Michal Guzik at 82.4%
99 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 6–0 Kazimierz Rybak Kazimierz Rybak has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:10What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-0 in 6
Guzik
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1491 vs Rybak 985
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 506 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 40% vs Rybak 0%
Guzik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 40% vs Rybak 10%
Guzik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik -1 · Rybak -5
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 82% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybak form (0%) is below what odds imply (12%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.05 / Rybak 8.50
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Guzik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13123711
Guzik1.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 120 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it89% 88 of 99
Rybak8.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 51 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGuzik6wins
AwayRybak0wins
2 of 6 to a deciderGuzik leads 6–0, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%4 of 4
AwayRybakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik4Rybak2n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S2Guzik4Rybak2n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S3Guzik4Rybak2n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S4Guzik4Rybak1n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGuzikRybakG − RBasisWins60+6in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.532.5+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikRybakBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 182 vs 116 / 49071.4%23.7%130 / 182 vs 116 / 490Avg sets wonper match2.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.832.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.05/Rybak 8.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.6%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 6 · 21:20M. Guzik3911611113K. Rybak27611461
WAug 6 · 15:25M. Guzik331111113K. Rybak164750
WAug 3 · 01:25M. Guzik50613119113K. Rybak47111181162
WAug 2 · 19:20M. Guzik4011711113K. Rybak33611881
WJul 17 · 01:00M. Guzik4011117113K. Rybak22341141
WJul 16 · 18:55M. Guzik47511713113K. Rybak50119111182
M. Guzik10
WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.22111173G. Mucha4.006750LSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133LSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 02:20W. Stechly7.102490M. Guzik1.041111113WSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171LSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113LSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.061212183K. Rybak8.001010160LSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak4.009990K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113LAug 19 · 04:20K. Rybak3.07117791P. Gesiarz1.3391111113WAug 19 · 03:05K. Rybak4.3711119113J. Skorupa1.18951171
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