TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13123423
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10126111210711––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:19 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-10
Point 78 set 4, 7-10 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 61.3%
78 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Guzik 2–4 Miroslaw Lewczuk Michal Guzik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:19What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1506 vs Lewczuk 1459
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Lewczuk 40%
Guzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 50% vs Lewczuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +1 · Lewczuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.57 / Lewczuk 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Guzik)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13123423
Guzik1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite74% won 120 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it89% 88 of 99
Lewczuk2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 65 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGuzik2wins
AwayLewczuk4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLewczuk leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLewczuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik2Lewczuk4n = 6Lewczuk took 4 of 6
S2Guzik3Lewczuk3n = 6split evenly
S3Guzik3Lewczuk3n = 6split evenly
S4Guzik3Lewczuk1n = 4Guzik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGuzikLewczukG − LBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match39.237.0+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 181 vs 486 / 94771.8%51.3%130 / 181 vs 486 / 947Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.57/Lewczuk 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Guzik2561360M. Lewczuk371115113
WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik331111113M. Lewczuk209920
WSep 4 · 01:45M. Guzik4181111113M. Lewczuk20111621
LSep 3 · 16:15M. Guzik44132111172M. Lewczuk47151146113
LAug 18 · 01:10M. Guzik52111481272M. Lewczuk546161110113
LAug 17 · 16:15M. Guzik406111491M. Lewczuk4411616113
M. Guzik10
WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.22111173G. Mucha4.006750LSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133LSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 02:20W. Stechly7.102490M. Guzik1.041111113WSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171LSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113LSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182WSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113WSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 13 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.73861191A. Kubiak2.0011119113LSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581WSep 11 · 01:25A. Staniczek3.755540M. Lewczuk1.251111113WSep 10 · 23:20J. Cyndera1.918630M. Lewczuk1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:35K. Gudzik2.63412116113M. Lewczuk1.44111091152WSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.73413110M. Lewczuk2.001115133WSep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50612851M. Lewczuk1.28111011113LSep 10 · 17:20J. Cyndera1.7311612113M. Lewczuk2.006111041WSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
Sep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.05K. Rybak8.50—Sep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.33M. Karpiuk3.25—Sep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 13 · 21:45M. Guzik1.05K. Rybak8.50—Sep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.20G. Mucha4.33—Sep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 14 · 01:00M. Guzik1.33M. Karpiuk3.25—Sep 14 · 01:45M. Guzik1.57M. Lewczuk2.25—
M. Lewczuk1 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.50G. Mucha2.50—Sep 13 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.06K. Rybak8.00—Sep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36M. Karpiuk3.00—Sep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.73A. Kubiak2.00—Sep 13 · 22:10M. Lewczuk1.36M. Karpiuk3.00—Sep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.50G. Mucha2.50—Sep 14 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.06K. Rybak8.00—Sep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.25M. Guzik1.57—Sep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——
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