TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125203
Played Sep 14Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118118113––
Artur Kubiak
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:42 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 69 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Michal Guzik at 67.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 1–1 Artur Kubiak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:42What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1513 vs Kubiak 1420
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 80% vs Kubiak 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 70% vs Kubiak 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +4 · Kubiak +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.25 / Kubiak 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13125203
Guzik1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 120 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it89% 88 of 99
Kubiak3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 73 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGuzik1wins
AwayKubiak1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGuzikKubiakG − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match43.032.5+10.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 186 vs 503 / 91072%55.3%134 / 186 vs 503 / 910Avg sets wonper match2.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.25/Kubiak 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 28 · 24:10M. Guzik4291111113A. Kubiak19111521
LJul 27 · 20:30M. Guzik44104111182A. Kubiak46121139113
M. Guzik10
WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.006780LSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133LSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 02:20W. Stechly7.102490M. Guzik1.041111113
A. Kubiak10
WSep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.008750A. Kubiak1.111111113WSep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.731112951A. Kubiak2.00131011113LSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091LSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113WSep 13 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.73861191A. Kubiak2.0011119113WSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113WSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.