TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125287
Played Sep 13Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
7.50
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
111118811118911
Michal Guzik
Away
1.07
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:55 and never touched — 91.4% is still 91.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
91.4%
91.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKazimierz Rybak above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Michal Guzik at 91.4%
89 points played in total.
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 0–7 Michal Guzik Kazimierz Rybak has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Guzik beat Rybak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (88%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-7 in 7
Guzik
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1059 vs Guzik 1475
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 416 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 0% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 0% vs Guzik 60%
Guzik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -5 · Guzik +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 91% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (80%) is below what odds imply (93%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 7.50 / Guzik 1.07
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Guzik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13125287
Rybak7.50
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 51 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 104
Guzik1.07
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 120 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it89% 88 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeRybak0wins
AwayGuzik7wins
3 of 7 to a deciderGuzik leads 7–0, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybak0%0 of 3
AwayGuzik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak3Guzik4n = 7Guzik took 4 of 7
S2Rybak2Guzik5n = 7Guzik took 5 of 7
S3Rybak3Guzik4n = 7Guzik took 4 of 7
S4Rybak1Guzik5n = 6Guzik took 5 of 6
S5Rybak0Guzik3n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricRybakGuzikR − GBasisWins07−7in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match34.443.1−8.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 493 vs 133 / 18523.5%71.9%116 / 493 vs 133 / 185Avg sets wonper match1.32.5per matchAvg pointsper match32.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikRybak 7.50/Guzik 1.07
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.1%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 13 · 17:45K. Rybak4611815482M. Guzik537111311113
LAug 6 · 21:20K. Rybak27611461M. Guzik3911611113
LAug 6 · 15:25K. Rybak164750M. Guzik331111113
LAug 3 · 01:25K. Rybak47111181162M. Guzik50613119113
LAug 2 · 19:20K. Rybak33611881M. Guzik4011711113
LJul 17 · 01:00K. Rybak22341141M. Guzik4011117113
LJul 16 · 18:55K. Rybak50119111182M. Guzik47511713113
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.0012111071G. Mucha1.14101312113LSep 13 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.061212183K. Rybak8.001010160LSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113LAug 19 · 22:10K. Rybak7.008670M. Lewczuk1.081111113LAug 19 · 21:00K. Rybak4.009990K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113
M. Guzik10
WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.006780LSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133LSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 02:20W. Stechly7.102490M. Guzik1.041111113WSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171
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