TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125276
Played Sep 13Finished
Kazimierz Rybak
Home
6.00
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711511––––
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.11
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:53 and never touched — 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKazimierz Rybak above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 53 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Artur Kubiak at 88.6%
53 points played in total.
H2H Kazimierz Rybak 2–10 Artur Kubiak Kazimierz Rybak has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kubiak beat Rybak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:53What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rybak 1056 vs Kubiak 1426
Kubiak
Correct
both rated, 369 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rybak 0% vs Kubiak 60%
Kubiak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rybak 0% vs Kubiak 60%
Kubiak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rybak -5 · Kubiak +1
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 89% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRybak 6.00 / Kubiak 1.11
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Kubiak)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13125276
Rybak6.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 51 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 104
Kubiak1.11
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 157 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 109 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRybak1wins
AwayKubiak9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRybak33.3%1 of 3
AwayKubiak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rybak3Kubiak7n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S2Rybak2Kubiak8n = 10Kubiak took 8 of 10
S3Rybak2Kubiak8n = 10Kubiak took 8 of 10
S4Rybak2Kubiak4n = 6Kubiak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRybakKubiakR − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.438.0−8.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRybakKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 494 vs 504 / 91223.5%55.3%116 / 494 vs 504 / 912Avg sets wonper match1.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakRybak 6.00/Kubiak 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.9%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 24 · 21:00K. Rybak177550A. Kubiak331111113
LJun 24 · 16:35K. Rybak209740A. Kubiak331111113
WJun 21 · 23:45K. Rybak3811412113A. Kubiak326111051
LJun 21 · 15:50K. Rybak29751161A. Kubiak4011117113
LApr 12 · 01:10K. Rybak28911441A. Kubiak3811511113
LApr 11 · 19:10K. Rybak2661190A. Kubiak351113113
LMar 15 · 24:35K. Rybak2111550A. Kubiak351311113
LMar 14 · 18:35K. Rybak38129981A. Kubiak43101111113
LJan 3 · 22:10K. Rybak4271151272A. Kubiak501171110113
LJan 3 · 17:50K. Rybak351195101A. Kubiak4171111123
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771LSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113LSep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.0012111071G. Mucha1.14101312113LSep 13 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.061212183K. Rybak8.001010160LSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113
A. Kubiak10
WSep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.731112951A. Kubiak2.00131011113LSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091LSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113WSep 13 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.73861191A. Kubiak2.0011119113WSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113WSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113
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