TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125269
Played Sep 13Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811117117––
Kazimierz Rybak
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:51 and never touched — 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Kazimierz Rybak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 73.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 2–2 Kazimierz Rybak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Karpiuk beat Rybak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1264 vs Rybak 1048
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 40% vs Rybak 0%
Karpiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 30% vs Rybak 0%
Karpiuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -1 · Rybak -5
Rybak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rybak form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.28 / Rybak 3.50
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Karpiuk)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125269
Karpiuk1.28
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 54 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it67% 35 of 52
Rybak3.50
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 51 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKarpiuk2wins
AwayRybak2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk2Rybak2n = 4split evenly
S2Karpiuk2Rybak2n = 4split evenly
S3Karpiuk3Rybak1n = 4Karpiuk took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKarpiukRybakK − RBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match39.535.0+4.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukRybakBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 270 vs 116 / 49544.1%23.4%119 / 270 vs 116 / 495Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.932.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukKarpiuk 1.28/Rybak 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 17 · 01:45M. Karpiuk591411141192K. Rybak611691213113
WJul 16 · 16:15M. Karpiuk331111113K. Rybak136160
LJul 12 · 01:25M. Karpiuk239680K. Rybak331111113
WJul 11 · 19:20M. Karpiuk43111011113K. Rybak33812761
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471LSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113
K. Rybak10
LSep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.008750A. Kubiak1.111111113LSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113LSep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.0012111071G. Mucha1.14101312113LSep 13 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.061212183K. Rybak8.001010160LSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LAug 20 · 02:35K. Rybak4.00811871A. Zmijewski1.2211511113LAug 20 · 01:00K. Rybak8.508380J. Zelezik1.051111113LAug 19 · 23:45K. Rybak3.008670A. Staniczek1.361111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50M. Guzik1.28—Sep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.50A. Kubiak1.50—Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 18:55M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——
K. Rybak
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