TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120934
Played Sep 13Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811116114411119
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 69.6% is still 69.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
69.6%
69.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 86 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 69.6%
86 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 7–12 Grzegorz Mucha Mateusz Karpiuk has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Mucha beat Karpiuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Mucha
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1265 vs Mucha 1397
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 40% vs Mucha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 20% vs Mucha 50%
Mucha
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -2 · Mucha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.38 / Mucha 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Mucha)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13120934
Karpiuk2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Mucha1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 82 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it100% 42 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk4wins
AwayMucha6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMucha leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk50%3 of 6
AwayMucha75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk6Mucha4n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S2Karpiuk4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S3Karpiuk5Mucha5n = 10split evenly
S4Karpiuk0Mucha7n = 7Mucha took 7 of 7
S5Karpiuk3Mucha2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukMuchaK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.1−0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 268 vs 134 / 26744%50.2%118 / 268 vs 134 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaKarpiuk 2.38/Mucha 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2889110G. Mucha351111133
LAug 23 · 22:35M. Karpiuk50118138102G. Mucha538111111123
WAug 23 · 15:00M. Karpiuk525111113123G. Mucha49117615102
LAug 18 · 24:50M. Karpiuk331061161G. Mucha3712113113
WAug 17 · 19:20M. Karpiuk331111113G. Mucha196670
LAug 17 · 01:25M. Karpiuk28119531G. Mucha3631111113
WAug 16 · 19:20M. Karpiuk53111597113G. Mucha49813111162
WAug 10 · 01:25M. Karpiuk48111187113G. Mucha4157111172
LAug 9 · 19:20M. Karpiuk236890G. Mucha331111113
LAug 8 · 22:35M. Karpiuk45119114102G. Mucha49711811123
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471LSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113
G. Mucha10
WSep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.0012111071G. Mucha1.14101312113LSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091LSep 13 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.5011711173G. Mucha2.505116151WSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133LSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.22111173G. Mucha4.006750WSep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha1.281111133D. Maszczynski3.5041110LSep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00871161T. Kocik1.2211116113WSep 12 · 23:45G. Mucha1.671111113P. Gesiarz2.109880WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.28K. Rybak3.50—Sep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50M. Guzik1.28—Sep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.50A. Kubiak1.50—Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 18:55M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——
G. Mucha1 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 22:35G. Mucha4.00M. Guzik1.22—Sep 13 · 23:20G. Mucha2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 14 · 01:25G. Mucha1.67A. Kubiak2.10—Sep 14 · 02:10G. Mucha1.17K. Rybak4.50—Sep 14 · 15:00G. Mucha—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 16:35G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——Sep 14 · 17:20G. Mucha—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 19:20G. Mucha—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 20:05G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 21:00G. Mucha—M. Karpiuk——
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