TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125284
Played Sep 13Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
151311910123111113
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:55 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 108 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 72.8%
108 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 4–11 Miroslaw Lewczuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Lewczuk beat Karpiuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-11 in 15
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1271 vs Lewczuk 1410
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 40% vs Lewczuk 80%
Lewczuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 30% vs Lewczuk 60%
Lewczuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Lewczuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 3.25 / Lewczuk 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Lewczuk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125284
Karpiuk3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Lewczuk1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 163 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it96% 105 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it84% 123 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk3wins
AwayLewczuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk50%2 of 4
AwayLewczuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk4Lewczuk6n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Karpiuk3Lewczuk7n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S3Karpiuk4Lewczuk6n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S4Karpiuk2Lewczuk4n = 6Lewczuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukLewczukK − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.537.8−5.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 269 vs 490 / 95244.2%51.5%119 / 269 vs 490 / 952Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukKarpiuk 3.25/Lewczuk 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 19:40M. Karpiuk32651471M. Lewczuk45111112113
LAug 31 · 23:50M. Karpiuk35951291M. Lewczuk43111110113
LAug 31 · 20:30M. Karpiuk25117431M. Lewczuk3741111113
LAug 24 · 22:30M. Karpiuk279990M. Lewczuk331111113
WAug 24 · 15:00M. Karpiuk48811612113M. Lewczuk45116111072
WAug 21 · 01:55M. Karpiuk361114113M. Lewczuk2881280
LAug 20 · 19:55M. Karpiuk4111112982M. Lewczuk47861111113
WAug 17 · 21:20M. Karpiuk3911611113M. Lewczuk30711931
LAug 17 · 15:25M. Karpiuk1761010M. Lewczuk341112113
LAug 14 · 02:45M. Karpiuk2512670M. Lewczuk361411113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471LSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.731112951A. Kubiak2.00131011113WSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471WSep 13 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.061212183K. Rybak8.001010160WSep 13 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.5011711173G. Mucha2.505116151WSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113LSep 13 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.73861191A. Kubiak2.0011119113LSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581WSep 11 · 01:25A. Staniczek3.755540M. Lewczuk1.251111113WSep 10 · 23:20J. Cyndera1.918630M. Lewczuk1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:35K. Gudzik2.63412116113M. Lewczuk1.44111091152
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.28K. Rybak3.50—Sep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50M. Guzik1.28—Sep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.50A. Kubiak1.50—Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 18:55M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——
M. Lewczuk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.53G. Mucha2.38—Sep 14 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.07K. Rybak7.50—Sep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.25M. Guzik1.57—Sep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—M. Karpiuk——Sep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—M. Karpiuk——
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