TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125204
Played Sep 14Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
14121412711511117
Michal Guzik
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:41 and never touched — 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 104 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Michal Guzik at 73.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 3–4 Michal Guzik Mateusz Karpiuk has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Guzik beat Karpiuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1270 vs Guzik 1533
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 263 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 40% vs Guzik 100%
Guzik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 40% vs Guzik 70%
Guzik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Guzik +5
Guzik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 3.50 / Guzik 1.28
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Guzik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125204
Karpiuk3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Guzik1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 120 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it89% 88 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKarpiuk3wins
AwayGuzik4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderGuzik leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayGuzik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk3Guzik4n = 7Guzik took 4 of 7
S2Karpiuk4Guzik3n = 7Karpiuk took 4 of 7
S3Karpiuk3Guzik4n = 7Guzik took 4 of 7
S4Karpiuk1Guzik5n = 6Guzik took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKarpiukGuzikK − GBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match39.939.6+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 271 vs 136 / 18844.3%72.3%120 / 271 vs 136 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikKarpiuk 3.50/Guzik 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.3%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 13 · 18:55M. Karpiuk29731451M. Guzik45111112113
LAug 17 · 23:50M. Karpiuk42101011111M. Guzik4212125133
LAug 17 · 20:30M. Karpiuk35119871M. Guzik3851111113
WJul 19 · 23:20M. Karpiuk531112118113M. Guzik43310131162
WJul 19 · 17:20M. Karpiuk331111113M. Guzik183690
WJul 16 · 22:10M. Karpiuk517111011123M. Guzik49117129102
LJul 16 · 19:40M. Karpiuk361011781M. Guzik4212811113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123WSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771LSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471LSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113
M. Guzik10
LSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962WSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460WSep 13 · 21:45K. Rybak7.5011181192M. Guzik1.07118118113WSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 17:45M. Guzik1.057111311113K. Rybak8.5011815482LSep 13 · 16:15M. Guzik1.571061271M. Lewczuk2.25121110113WSep 13 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.006780LSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 18:55M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——
M. Guzik
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.