TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125245
Played Sep 14Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
14129119111012––
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 88 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Artur Kubiak at 61.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 6–10 Artur Kubiak Mateusz Karpiuk has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Karpiuk beat Kubiak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1296 vs Kubiak 1399
Kubiak
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 60% vs Kubiak 40%
Karpiuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 50% vs Kubiak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +2 · Kubiak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.50 / Kubiak 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kubiak)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125245
Karpiuk2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Kubiak1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 157 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it95% 75 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 109 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk4wins
AwayKubiak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk57.1%4 of 7
AwayKubiak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk7Kubiak3n = 10Karpiuk took 7 of 10
S2Karpiuk2Kubiak8n = 10Kubiak took 8 of 10
S3Karpiuk4Kubiak6n = 10Kubiak took 6 of 10
S4Karpiuk4Kubiak5n = 9Kubiak took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukKubiakKarpiuk − KubiakBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.440.6−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 273 vs 504 / 91244.3%55.3%121 / 273 vs 504 / 912Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakKarpiuk 2.50/Kubiak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk421499101A. Kubiak46121111123
WSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk4511815113A. Kubiak356111351
LAug 31 · 24:10M. Karpiuk47111011872A. Kubiak46612611113
WAug 30 · 20:30M. Karpiuk3911116113A. Kubiak35781191
LAug 17 · 24:10M. Karpiuk391337161A. Kubiak51111111183
WAug 16 · 20:30M. Karpiuk4212511143A. Kubiak3710114121
LJul 20 · 22:35M. Karpiuk28213671A. Kubiak44111111113
LJul 20 · 15:00M. Karpiuk257990A. Kubiak331111113
LJul 16 · 01:45M. Karpiuk34891161A. Kubiak3411111113
WJul 15 · 16:15M. Karpiuk531181211113A. Kubiak4591114832
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771LSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471LSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451WSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.2589110G. Mucha1.571111133WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rybak3.255890M. Karpiuk1.331111113LSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113
A. Kubiak10
LSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113LSep 14 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2561111113A. Kubiak3.75118831WSep 13 · 22:55K. Rybak6.008750A. Kubiak1.111111113WSep 13 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.731112951A. Kubiak2.00131011113LSep 13 · 20:30M. Guzik1.441311113A. Kubiak2.6311880WSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091LSep 13 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.3811815113A. Kubiak1.536111351WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rybak6.00119971A. Kubiak1.1161111113WSep 13 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.73861191A. Kubiak2.0011119113WSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 14 · 18:55M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk—G. Mucha——Sep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk—M. Lewczuk——Sep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk—J. Zelezik——
A. Kubiak
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.