TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125528
Played Sep 14Finished
Krystian Gudzik
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119117––––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeKrystian Gudzik to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Gudzik above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Krystian Gudzik at 60.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Gudzik 3–1 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gudzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Gudzik
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gudzik 1366 vs Karpiuk 1297
Gudzik
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gudzik 60% vs Karpiuk 40%
Gudzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gudzik 40% vs Karpiuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gudzik +1 · Karpiuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Gudzik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGudzik 1.67 / Karpiuk 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Gudzik)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13125528
Gudzik1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Karpiuk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGudzik3wins
AwayKarpiuk1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderGudzik leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGudzik100%3 of 3
AwayKarpiukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gudzik3Karpiuk1n = 4Gudzik took 3 of 4
S2Gudzik1Karpiuk3n = 4Karpiuk took 3 of 4
S3Gudzik2Karpiuk2n = 4split evenly
S4Gudzik2Karpiuk2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGudzikKarpiukG − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match44.542.2+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGudzikKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 113 vs 122 / 27651.3%44.2%58 / 113 vs 122 / 276Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikGudzik 1.67/Karpiuk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 24 · 23:10K. Gudzik45111112113M. Karpiuk35881451
LAug 24 · 17:20K. Gudzik4410915101M. Karpiuk48121113123
WAug 9 · 22:55K. Gudzik45115117113M. Karpiuk4171151172
WAug 9 · 16:55K. Gudzik44117411113M. Karpiuk4581111692
K. Gudzik10
WSep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111138113Z. Nocun1.804111151LSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113WSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.8311117113G. Mucha1.83531191WSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112LSep 13 · 24:35K. Gudzik1.61117481P. Gesiarz2.0861111113LSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113WSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113WSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.20101111123G. Mucha1.611297101LSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162LSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123WSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771LSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471LSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451
Upcoming Matches
K. Gudzik
M. Karpiuk
Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk2.75M. Lewczuk1.40—Sep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38G. Mucha1.53—Sep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.75M. Lewczuk1.40—Sep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38Z. Nocun1.53—Sep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.38K. Gudzik1.53—Sep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk2.63J. Zelezik1.44—Sep 15 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—J. Michalik——Sep 15 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 15 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——Sep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——
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