TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125529
Played Sep 14Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111210117511811
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 69.4% is still 69.4%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
69.4%
69.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 69.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 2–3 Jacek Zelezik Mateusz Karpiuk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:55What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1303 vs Zelezik 1462
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 60% vs Zelezik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 50% vs Zelezik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Zelezik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.63 / Zelezik 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Zelezik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125529
Karpiuk2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Zelezik1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 178 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it82% 137 of 168
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKarpiuk2wins
AwayZelezik3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderZelezik leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiukn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayZelezik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk0Zelezik5n = 5Zelezik took 5 of 5
S2Karpiuk4Zelezik1n = 5Karpiuk took 4 of 5
S3Karpiuk1Zelezik4n = 5Zelezik took 4 of 5
S4Karpiuk2Zelezik2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKarpiukZelezikK − ZBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match37.041.0−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 275 vs 372 / 68944.4%54%122 / 275 vs 372 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikKarpiuk 2.63/Zelezik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 21 · 03:55M. Karpiuk4051311113J. Zelezik401111991
LAug 20 · 21:55M. Karpiuk188460J. Zelezik331111113
LJul 20 · 17:20M. Karpiuk357117101J. Zelezik4311911123
WJul 6 · 02:10M. Karpiuk507111011113J. Zelezik4311912472
LJul 5 · 20:05M. Karpiuk4291310101J. Zelezik46111112123
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970WSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.20101111123G. Mucha1.611297101LSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162LSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123WSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771LSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192LSep 13 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.36111112113M. Karpiuk3.00651471LSep 13 · 18:55M. Guzik1.40111112113M. Karpiuk2.75731451
J. Zelezik10
LSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133WSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123LSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113WSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 14 · 19:40M. Karpiuk2.75M. Lewczuk1.40—Sep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38G. Mucha1.53—Sep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.75M. Lewczuk1.40—Sep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38Z. Nocun1.53—Sep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.10K. Gudzik1.67—Sep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk2.63J. Zelezik1.44—Sep 15 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—J. Michalik——Sep 15 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 15 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——Sep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——
J. Zelezik
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