TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13124704
Played Sep 14Finished
Krystian Gudzik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115113711119––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Gudzik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 68 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Gudzik 4–2 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:09What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Gudzik
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gudzik 1348 vs Mucha 1386
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gudzik 20% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gudzik 30% vs Mucha 50%
Mucha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gudzik +1 · Mucha +3
Mucha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gudzik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gudzik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGudzik 1.83 / Mucha 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gudzik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13124704
Gudzik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Mucha1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGudzik4wins
AwayMucha2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderGudzik leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGudzik75%3 of 4
AwayMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gudzik4Mucha2n = 6Gudzik took 4 of 6
S2Gudzik3Mucha3n = 6split evenly
S3Gudzik5Mucha1n = 6Gudzik took 5 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGudzikMuchaG − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.234.8+3.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGudzikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 110 vs 137 / 27250.9%50.4%56 / 110 vs 137 / 272Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikGudzik 1.83/Mucha 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gudzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 12 · 22:10K. Gudzik4011611932G. Mucha49911711113
LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik2810990G. Mucha341211113
WAug 12 · 22:55K. Gudzik361213113G. Mucha29101180
WAug 12 · 16:55K. Gudzik391116123G. Mucha31714100
WAug 10 · 02:10K. Gudzik361114113G. Mucha2551280
WAug 9 · 20:05K. Gudzik50891111113G. Mucha4111115772
K. Gudzik10
WSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112LSep 13 · 24:35K. Gudzik1.61117481P. Gesiarz2.0861111113LSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932LSep 12 · 21:20K. Gudzik1.2781070D. Maszczynski3.501112113LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113WSep 12 · 18:30K. Gudzik1.80512125113P. Gesiarz1.911110101192LSep 12 · 17:20K. Gudzik1.6111113892J. Skorupa2.20641111113LSep 12 · 16:15T. Kocik1.28121011113K. Gudzik3.501012531WSep 12 · 15:25K. Gudzik1.331113143D. Maszczynski3.25411120
G. Mucha10
WSep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak4.501110851G. Mucha1.1771211113WSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113WSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.537111111112G. Mucha2.38117135133LSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460LSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192WSep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.0012111071G. Mucha1.14101312113LSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091LSep 13 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.5011711173G. Mucha2.505116151WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932WSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik1.4010990G. Mucha2.751211113
Upcoming Matches
K. Gudzik
Sep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.50M. Lewczuk1.50—Sep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.91Z. Nocun1.80—Sep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.73M. Karpiuk2.00—Sep 14 · 20:30K. Gudzik2.75J. Zelezik1.40—Sep 14 · 21:45K. Gudzik1.91Z. Nocun1.80—Sep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.83G. Mucha1.83—Sep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.75J. Zelezik1.40—Sep 15 · 24:30K. Gudzik1.73M. Karpiuk2.00—Sep 15 · 01:10K. Gudzik2.50M. Lewczuk1.50—
G. Mucha
Sep 14 · 16:35G. Mucha1.50M. Karpiuk2.50—Sep 14 · 17:20G. Mucha2.50M. Lewczuk1.50—Sep 14 · 19:20G. Mucha1.73J. Zelezik2.00—Sep 14 · 20:05G. Mucha2.38Z. Nocun1.53—Sep 14 · 21:00G. Mucha1.50M. Karpiuk2.50—Sep 14 · 22:30G. Mucha1.83K. Gudzik1.83—Sep 14 · 23:10G. Mucha2.50M. Lewczuk1.50—Sep 15 · 24:50G. Mucha1.73J. Zelezik2.00—Sep 15 · 01:30G. Mucha2.38Z. Nocun1.53—
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