TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125527
Played Sep 14Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911811911––
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 67.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 7–9 Zbigniew Nocun Mateusz Karpiuk has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Nocun beat Karpiuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Nocun
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1301 vs Nocun 1432
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 20% vs Nocun 40%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 40% vs Nocun 70%
Nocun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -2 · Nocun -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.38 / Nocun 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Nocun)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125527
Karpiuk2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Nocun1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 320 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it95% 155 of 164
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 271
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk4wins
AwayNocun6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk66.7%4 of 6
AwayNocun100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk6Nocun4n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S2Karpiuk2Nocun8n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S3Karpiuk5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S4Karpiuk4Nocun5n = 9Nocun took 5 of 9
S5Karpiuk2Nocun2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukNocunK − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.541.1−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 280 vs 665 / 111443.9%59.7%123 / 280 vs 665 / 1114Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunKarpiuk 2.38/Nocun 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 15:50M. Karpiuk3421141162Z. Nocun47116118113
WSep 1 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3911611113Z. Nocun32711771
LAug 31 · 18:10M. Karpiuk185850Z. Nocun331111113
LAug 30 · 21:20M. Karpiuk4781181192Z. Nocun51119119113
LAug 30 · 15:25M. Karpiuk321261131Z. Nocun45101113113
WAug 20 · 01:55M. Karpiuk46129113113Z. Nocun49101181192
LJul 19 · 21:20M. Karpiuk33118861Z. Nocun3741111113
LJul 19 · 15:25M. Karpiuk376111371Z. Nocun46111311113
WJul 6 · 23:20M. Karpiuk3911511123Z. Nocun323118101
WJul 6 · 17:20M. Karpiuk501110116123Z. Nocun39312311102
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970LSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113WSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101LSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162LSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123WSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771
Z. Nocun10
LSep 14 · 22:50Z. Nocun2.00611791J. Zelezik1.7311711113WSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113LSep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111138113Z. Nocun1.804111151WSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162WSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581WSep 11 · 24:35J. Cyndera1.9111561192Z. Nocun1.80611119113WSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133
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