TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128913
Played Sep 14Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611117711911––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 29–13 Jacek Zelezik Jacek Zelezik has won 13 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Zelezik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:02What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-13 in 42
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 16 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1432 vs Zelezik 1462
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Zelezik 40%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Zelezik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Zelezik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 2.00 / Zelezik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zelezik)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13128913
Nocun2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 70 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back13% 13 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Zelezik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 178 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it82% 137 of 168
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwayZelezik3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%7 of 7
AwayZelezik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun7Zelezik3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S2Nocun6Zelezik4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Nocun5Zelezik5n = 10split evenly
S4Nocun2Zelezik6n = 8Zelezik took 6 of 8
S5Nocun4Zelezik0n = 4Nocun took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunZelezikN − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.8+1.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime665 / 1114 vs 375 / 69459.7%54%665 / 1114 vs 375 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikNocun 2.00/Zelezik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun48121175133J. Zelezik521091111112
WSep 6 · 23:45Z. Nocun4211911113J. Zelezik33811951
WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun51119119113J. Zelezik4031191162
WSep 4 · 03:05Z. Nocun331111113J. Zelezik257990
LSep 3 · 21:05Z. Nocun33611881J. Zelezik4011711113
WAug 27 · 01:45Z. Nocun46117116113J. Zelezik4491141192
WAug 26 · 16:15Z. Nocun351111133J. Zelezik2485110
LAug 19 · 03:55Z. Nocun376111191J. Zelezik4211713113
WAug 18 · 21:55Z. Nocun48115911123J. Zelezik48811118102
LJul 23 · 04:40Z. Nocun30611761J. Zelezik4011711113
Z. Nocun10
WSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113LSep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111138113Z. Nocun1.804111151WSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162WSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581WSep 11 · 24:35J. Cyndera1.9111561192Z. Nocun1.80611119113WSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133
J. Zelezik10
WSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 20:30K. Gudzik2.75411911113J. Zelezik1.4011711732LSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113WSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113LSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133WSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123LSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113
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