TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125351
Played Sep 14Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311119811118711
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 62.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 1–6 Grzegorz Mucha Jacek Zelezik has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:18What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Mucha
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1469 vs Mucha 1345
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 80% vs Mucha 40%
Zelezik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 70% vs Mucha 40%
Zelezik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +1 · Mucha -3
Mucha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.91 / Mucha 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zelezik)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13125351
Zelezik1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 85 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Mucha1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 86 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it77% 58 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZelezik1wins
AwayMucha6wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMucha leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMucha80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik2Mucha5n = 7Mucha took 5 of 7
S2Zelezik3Mucha4n = 7Mucha took 4 of 7
S3Zelezik0Mucha7n = 7Mucha took 7 of 7
S4Zelezik1Mucha4n = 5Mucha took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricZelezikMuchaZ − MBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match31.139.3−8.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 690 vs 137 / 27554.1%49.8%373 / 690 vs 137 / 275Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.91/Mucha 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik199460G. Mucha331111113
WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik47711711113G. Mucha4111811562
LJul 5 · 22:55J. Zelezik32611691G. Mucha4111811113
LJul 5 · 17:40J. Zelezik351111491G. Mucha4271311113
LJul 5 · 16:55J. Zelezik351111491G. Mucha4271311113
LJun 21 · 01:00J. Zelezik26311661G. Mucha4211911113
LJun 20 · 18:55J. Zelezik2410680G. Mucha341211113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113LSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133WSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123LSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113WSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070
G. Mucha10
LSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590LSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.20101111123G. Mucha1.611297101LSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.8311117113G. Mucha1.83531191WSep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak4.501110851G. Mucha1.1771211113WSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113WSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.537111111112G. Mucha2.38117135133LSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460LSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192WSep 13 · 20:05K. Rybak5.0012111071G. Mucha1.14101312113LSep 13 · 19:20A. Kubiak2.0011812113G. Mucha1.739111091
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