TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125349
Played Sep 14Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119311611711––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched — 68.2% is still 68.2%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
68.2%
68.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 68.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 9–12 Grzegorz Mucha Mateusz Karpiuk has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Karpiuk beat Mucha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Mucha
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1311 vs Mucha 1373
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 40% vs Mucha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 50% vs Mucha 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Mucha +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.38 / Mucha 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Mucha)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13125349
Karpiuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Mucha1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 86 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it77% 58 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk6wins
AwayMucha4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk60%3 of 5
AwayMucha40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk5Mucha5n = 10split evenly
S2Karpiuk6Mucha4n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S3Karpiuk6Mucha4n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S4Karpiuk1Mucha7n = 8Mucha took 7 of 8
S5Karpiuk4Mucha1n = 5Karpiuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukMuchaK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.439.8+1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 278 vs 139 / 27744.2%50.2%123 / 278 vs 139 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaKarpiuk 2.38/Mucha 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.4%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk44101111123G. Mucha381297101
WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk45811114113G. Mucha4111641192
LSep 13 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2889110G. Mucha351111133
LAug 23 · 22:35M. Karpiuk50118138102G. Mucha538111111123
WAug 23 · 15:00M. Karpiuk525111113123G. Mucha49117615102
LAug 18 · 24:50M. Karpiuk331061161G. Mucha3712113113
WAug 17 · 19:20M. Karpiuk331111113G. Mucha196670
LAug 17 · 01:25M. Karpiuk28119531G. Mucha3631111113
WAug 16 · 19:20M. Karpiuk53111597113G. Mucha49813111162
WAug 10 · 01:25M. Karpiuk48111187113G. Mucha4157111172
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970LSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113WSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101LSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162LSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123WSep 14 · 01:00M. Karpiuk3.50141475113M. Guzik1.281212111172WSep 13 · 23:45M. Karpiuk1.2811811113K. Rybak3.50811771LSep 13 · 22:10M. Karpiuk3.251511103112M. Lewczuk1.331391211133WSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192
G. Mucha10
WSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113LSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590LSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101LSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.8311117113G. Mucha1.83531191WSep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak4.501110851G. Mucha1.1771211113WSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113WSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.537111111112G. Mucha2.38117135133LSep 13 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336460LSep 13 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38811114113G. Mucha1.5311641192
Upcoming Matches
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G. Mucha
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