TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125525
Played Sep 15Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9117111210911––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 69.4% is still 69.4%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
69.4%
69.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 80 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 69.4%
80 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 2–4 Jacek Zelezik Mateusz Karpiuk has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Zelezik
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1272 vs Zelezik 1460
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 20% vs Zelezik 80%
Zelezik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 30% vs Zelezik 70%
Zelezik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -4 · Zelezik +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 3.00 / Zelezik 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125525
Karpiuk3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Zelezik1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 178 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it82% 137 of 168
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKarpiuk2wins
AwayZelezik4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderZelezik leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiukn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayZelezik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk0Zelezik6n = 6Zelezik took 6 of 6
S2Karpiuk5Zelezik1n = 6Karpiuk took 5 of 6
S3Karpiuk2Zelezik4n = 6Zelezik took 4 of 6
S4Karpiuk2Zelezik3n = 5Zelezik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKarpiukZelezikK − ZBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set06−6of 6Avg pointsper match38.042.5−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 282 vs 377 / 69643.6%54.2%123 / 282 vs 377 / 696Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikKarpiuk 3.00/Zelezik 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk4371211582J. Zelezik501110711113
WAug 21 · 03:55M. Karpiuk4051311113J. Zelezik401111991
LAug 20 · 21:55M. Karpiuk188460J. Zelezik331111113
LJul 20 · 17:20M. Karpiuk357117101J. Zelezik4311911123
WJul 6 · 02:10M. Karpiuk507111011113J. Zelezik4311912472
LJul 5 · 20:05M. Karpiuk4291310101J. Zelezik46111112123
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38119891Z. Nocun1.5381111113LSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970LSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113WSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101LSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162LSep 14 · 02:35M. Karpiuk2.501499101A. Kubiak1.50121111123
J. Zelezik10
WSep 15 · 24:50J. Zelezik1.83131116153G. Mucha1.8315714131WSep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.6311013642J. Zelezik1.445111111113WSep 14 · 22:50Z. Nocun2.00611791J. Zelezik1.7311711113WSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 20:30K. Gudzik2.75411911113J. Zelezik1.4011711732LSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113WSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113LSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 15 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—J. Michalik——Sep 15 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 15 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——Sep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——Sep 15 · 23:05M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——Sep 15 · 23:55M. Karpiuk—J. Michalik——Sep 16 · 01:30M. Karpiuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 16 · 02:45M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——Sep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——Sep 16 · 05:05M. Karpiuk—K. Rybak——
J. Zelezik
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