TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125346
Played Sep 15Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131511716141513––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 104 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 62.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 1–7 Grzegorz Mucha Jacek Zelezik has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mucha beat Zelezik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Mucha
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1458 vs Mucha 1369
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 60% vs Mucha 100%
Mucha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 70% vs Mucha 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +3 · Mucha +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.83 / Mucha 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125346
Zelezik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Mucha1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZelezik1wins
AwayMucha7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMucha leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMucha83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik2Mucha6n = 8Mucha took 6 of 8
S2Zelezik4Mucha4n = 8split evenly
S3Zelezik0Mucha8n = 8Mucha took 8 of 8
S4Zelezik2Mucha4n = 6Mucha took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricZelezikMuchaZ − MBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match32.240.6−8.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 695 vs 142 / 28054.1%50.7%376 / 695 vs 142 / 280Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.83/Mucha 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik4031181172G. Mucha50119118113
LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik199460G. Mucha331111113
WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik47711711113G. Mucha4111811562
LJul 5 · 22:55J. Zelezik32611691G. Mucha4111811113
LJul 5 · 17:40J. Zelezik351111491G. Mucha4271311113
LJul 5 · 16:55J. Zelezik351111491G. Mucha4271311113
LJun 21 · 01:00J. Zelezik26311661G. Mucha4211911113
LJun 20 · 18:55J. Zelezik2410680G. Mucha341211113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113WSep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.6311013642J. Zelezik1.445111111113WSep 14 · 22:50Z. Nocun2.00611791J. Zelezik1.7311711113WSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 20:30K. Gudzik2.75411911113J. Zelezik1.4011711732LSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113WSep 14 · 18:10M. Karpiuk2.6371211582J. Zelezik1.441110711113LSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133
G. Mucha10
LSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140WSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113WSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113LSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590LSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101LSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.6111117113G. Mucha2.20531191WSep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak4.501110851G. Mucha1.1771211113
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