TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125347
Played Sep 14Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116911911411––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 67.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 13–3 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lewczuk beat Mucha 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:17What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-3 in 16
Lewczuk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1353 vs Mucha 1369
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Mucha 80%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 40% vs Mucha 70%
Mucha
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +1 · Mucha +4
Mucha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.50 / Mucha 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lewczuk)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13125347
Lewczuk1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 167 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it83% 126 of 151
Mucha2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 42 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk7wins
AwayMucha3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayMucha50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk6Mucha4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk6Mucha4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S3Lewczuk6Mucha4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S4Lewczuk5Mucha2n = 7Lewczuk took 5 of 7
S5Lewczuk3Mucha2n = 5Lewczuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukMuchaL − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.937.5+4.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 964 vs 142 / 28051.4%50.7%495 / 964 vs 142 / 280Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.50/Mucha 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk33119941G. Mucha3961111113
WSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk331111113G. Mucha228590
LSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk517111111112G. Mucha49117135133
WSep 13 · 17:20M. Lewczuk4611711173G. Mucha375116151
LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk44101111752G. Mucha46128411113
WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk48841111143G. Mucha45111174122
WAug 17 · 23:10M. Lewczuk494131011113G. Mucha46111112932
WAug 17 · 17:20M. Lewczuk341211113G. Mucha2310850
WAug 16 · 02:35M. Lewczuk331111113G. Mucha218670
WAug 15 · 18:10M. Lewczuk481141011123G. Mucha47811126102
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590WSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113LSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962LSep 14 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.07123981K. Rybak7.50101111113LSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.537111111112G. Mucha2.38117135133
G. Mucha10
WSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113WSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113LSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590LSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101LSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.6111117113G. Mucha2.20531191WSep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak4.501110851G. Mucha1.1771211113WSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113WSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.537111111112G. Mucha2.38117135133
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