TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125348
Played Sep 14Finished
Krystian Gudzik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012116711911––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Gudzik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Gudzik 5–2 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:17What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gudzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Gudzik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gudzik 1389 vs Mucha 1370
Gudzik
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gudzik 60% vs Mucha 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gudzik 40% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gudzik -1 · Mucha +3
Mucha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gudzik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGudzik 1.80 / Mucha 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gudzik)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13125348
Gudzik1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Mucha1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 42 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeGudzik5wins
AwayMucha2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderGudzik leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGudzik80%4 of 5
AwayMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gudzik5Mucha2n = 7Gudzik took 5 of 7
S2Gudzik4Mucha3n = 7Gudzik took 4 of 7
S3Gudzik5Mucha2n = 7Gudzik took 5 of 7
S4Gudzik2Mucha1n = 3Gudzik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricGudzikMuchaG − MBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match38.433.9+4.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGudzikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 116 vs 140 / 27851.7%50.4%60 / 116 vs 140 / 278Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GudzikGudzik 1.80/Mucha 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gudzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik4011117113G. Mucha28531191
LSep 12 · 22:10K. Gudzik4011611932G. Mucha49911711113
LSep 12 · 19:40K. Gudzik2810990G. Mucha341211113
WAug 12 · 22:55K. Gudzik361213113G. Mucha29101180
WAug 12 · 16:55K. Gudzik391116123G. Mucha31714100
WAug 10 · 02:10K. Gudzik361114113G. Mucha2551280
WAug 9 · 20:05K. Gudzik50891111113G. Mucha4111115772
K. Gudzik10
LSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241WSep 14 · 20:30K. Gudzik2.75411911113J. Zelezik1.4011711732WSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970WSep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111138113Z. Nocun1.804111151LSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113WSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.6111117113G. Mucha2.20531191WSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112LSep 13 · 24:35K. Gudzik1.61117481P. Gesiarz2.0861111113LSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932
G. Mucha10
WSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113LSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590LSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101LSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.6111117113G. Mucha2.20531191WSep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak4.501110851G. Mucha1.1771211113WSep 14 · 01:25A. Kubiak2.101460G. Mucha1.671111113WSep 13 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.537111111112G. Mucha2.38117135133WSep 12 · 22:10G. Mucha2.75911711113K. Gudzik1.4011611932
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