TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125345
Played Sep 15Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141161614––––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 16-14
Point 62 set 3, 16-14 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 58.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 9–5 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mucha beat Nocun 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Nocun
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1457 vs Mucha 1374
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Mucha 80%
Mucha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Mucha 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +2 · Mucha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.50 / Mucha 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Nocun)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125345
Nocun1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 320 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it95% 155 of 164
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 271
Mucha2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 42 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun6wins
AwayMucha4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun62.5%5 of 8
AwayMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun8Mucha2n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S2Nocun7Mucha3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Nocun5Mucha5n = 10split evenly
S4Nocun3Mucha3n = 6split evenly
S5Nocun1Mucha3n = 4Mucha took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunMuchaN − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.434.3+5.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime668 / 1117 vs 142 / 28259.8%50.4%668 / 1117 vs 142 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.50/Mucha 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun381111163G. Mucha2446140
LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun4511116892G. Mucha44831111113
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun4211115962G. Mucha46581111113
LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun50121171192G. Mucha531081113113
WAug 12 · 21:20Z. Nocun49116813113G. Mucha47911111152
WAug 12 · 15:25Z. Nocun4111811113G. Mucha30411691
WAug 2 · 21:45Z. Nocun4071111113G. Mucha33119671
WAug 2 · 17:45Z. Nocun351113113G. Mucha2351170
WJul 10 · 24:35Z. Nocun331111113G. Mucha101360
LJul 9 · 18:30Z. Nocun216690G. Mucha331111113
Z. Nocun10
WSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123WSep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38119891Z. Nocun1.5381111113LSep 14 · 22:50Z. Nocun2.00611791J. Zelezik1.7311711113WSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113LSep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111138113Z. Nocun1.804111151WSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162WSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581
G. Mucha10
LSep 15 · 24:50J. Zelezik1.83131116153G. Mucha1.8315714131WSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113WSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 19:20J. Zelezik1.9131181172G. Mucha1.80119118113LSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590LSep 14 · 16:35M. Karpiuk2.50101111123G. Mucha1.501297101LSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.6111117113G. Mucha2.20531191WSep 14 · 02:10K. Rybak4.501110851G. Mucha1.1771211113
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