TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125412
Played Sep 15Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51191111912101012
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 100 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 58.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 17–36 Zbigniew Nocun Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 17 of their 53 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Lewczuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-36 in 53
Nocun
Correct
gap of 19 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1353 vs Nocun 1440
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 20% vs Nocun 60%
Nocun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 40% vs Nocun 70%
Nocun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -1 · Nocun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.10 / Nocun 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Nocun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125412
Lewczuk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 67 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back19% 21 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 68
Nocun1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 320 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it95% 155 of 164
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 271
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk3wins
AwayNocun7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk50%2 of 4
AwayNocun83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Lewczuk3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S4Lewczuk4Nocun2n = 6Lewczuk took 4 of 6
S5Lewczuk2Nocun3n = 5Nocun took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukNocunL − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.440.4−6.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 964 vs 666 / 111551.4%59.7%495 / 964 vs 666 / 1115Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunLewczuk 2.10/Nocun 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2371240Z. Nocun361114113
LSep 11 · 02:10M. Lewczuk33911581Z. Nocun4211911113
WSep 10 · 20:05M. Lewczuk391115133Z. Nocun28413110
WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk41511113113Z. Nocun4411671192
LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk199370Z. Nocun331111113
WSep 1 · 24:30M. Lewczuk48118711113Z. Nocun4271111582
LAug 31 · 18:55M. Lewczuk132650Z. Nocun331111113
LJun 18 · 01:30M. Lewczuk4111661172Z. Nocun47711117113
LJun 17 · 19:30M. Lewczuk46119111142Z. Nocun46131129113
LMay 6 · 03:30M. Lewczuk4111461372Z. Nocun539111111113
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 15 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.501411113K. Gudzik2.5012760LSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590WSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113LSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962
Z. Nocun10
WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.501111163G. Mucha2.5046140WSep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38119891Z. Nocun1.5381111113LSep 14 · 22:50Z. Nocun2.00611791J. Zelezik1.7311711113WSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.4011116892G. Mucha2.75831111113WSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113LSep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111138113Z. Nocun1.804111151WSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.91121175133J. Zelezik1.801091111112WSep 14 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.53116118113M. Karpiuk2.3821141162WSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581
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