TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125411
Played Sep 15Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412117116––––
Krystian Gudzik
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Krystian Gudzik below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 61 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 64.7%
61 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 4–1 Krystian Gudzik Krystian Gudzik has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Lewczuk beat Gudzik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1334 vs Gudzik 1406
Gudzik
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 20% vs Gudzik 40%
Gudzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 40% vs Gudzik 60%
Gudzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -2 · Gudzik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.50 / Gudzik 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lewczuk)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13125411
Lewczuk1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 167 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it83% 126 of 151
Gudzik2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 16 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLewczuk4wins
AwayGudzik1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderLewczuk leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk75%3 of 4
AwayGudzikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk4Gudzik1n = 5Lewczuk took 4 of 5
S2Lewczuk4Gudzik1n = 5Lewczuk took 4 of 5
S3Lewczuk3Gudzik2n = 5Lewczuk took 3 of 5
S4Lewczuk2Gudzik1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricLewczukGudzikL − GBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match40.231.8+8.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukGudzikBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 965 vs 61 / 11951.3%51.3%495 / 965 vs 61 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.50/Gudzik 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 14 · 16:15M. Lewczuk4114115113K. Gudzik381271181
LSep 10 · 22:35M. Lewczuk46111091152K. Gudzik44412116113
WSep 10 · 15:00M. Lewczuk331111113K. Gudzik228770
WAug 25 · 01:10M. Lewczuk331111113K. Gudzik196760
WAug 24 · 16:15M. Lewczuk48512119113K. Gudzik36111021122
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 15 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.10591112102Z. Nocun1.671111910123LSep 14 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.50119941G. Mucha2.5061111113WSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.91113110J. Zelezik1.801311133LSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.0071240Z. Nocun1.731114113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.501111113G. Mucha2.508590WSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113LSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.918580J. Zelezik1.801111113WSep 14 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.38911911113M. Guzik1.5311811962
K. Gudzik10
WSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Gudzik2.6311013642J. Zelezik1.445111111113LSep 14 · 22:30K. Gudzik1.801011791G. Mucha1.9112611113LSep 14 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.6781111113K. Gudzik2.10118241WSep 14 · 20:30K. Gudzik2.75411911113J. Zelezik1.4011711732WSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970WSep 14 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111138113Z. Nocun1.804111151LSep 14 · 16:15K. Gudzik2.501271181M. Lewczuk1.5014115113WSep 14 · 15:00K. Gudzik1.6111117113G. Mucha2.20531191WSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112
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