TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134894
Played Sep 15Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191412––––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
1191191412––––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 2–4 Piotr Gesiarz Jerzy Michalik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:48What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Gesiarz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Gesiarz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1435 vs Gesiarz 1371
Michalik
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 80% vs Gesiarz 60%
Michalik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 70% vs Gesiarz 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +4 · Gesiarz +1
Michalik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gesiarz) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.85 / Gesiarz 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gesiarz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13134894
Michalik1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Gesiarz1.85
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMichalik2wins
AwayGesiarz4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderGesiarz leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGesiarz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik2Gesiarz4n = 6Gesiarz took 4 of 6
S2Michalik3Gesiarz3n = 6split evenly
S3Michalik3Gesiarz3n = 6split evenly
S4Michalik0Gesiarz3n = 3Gesiarz took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMichalikGesiarzM − GBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match31.334.2−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime548 / 1161 vs 146 / 31047.2%47.1%548 / 1161 vs 146 / 310Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzMichalik 1.85/Gesiarz 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 29 · 15:50J. Michalik147340P. Gesiarz331111113
LAug 8 · 23:45J. Michalik177730P. Gesiarz331111113
LAug 8 · 15:50J. Michalik48911111072P. Gesiarz45113812113
WJul 30 · 21:20J. Michalik331111113P. Gesiarz168440
LJul 30 · 15:25J. Michalik34811961P. Gesiarz3611311113
WJan 15 · 23:20J. Michalik42110119113P. Gesiarz4281181142
J. Michalik10
WSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641WSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 02:45J. Michalik1.46116531A. Staniczek2.4031111113LSep 15 · 01:10J. Michalik2.65581161M. Warzecha1.3811118113LSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113WSep 14 · 22:25J. Michalik1.9011114113J. Cyndera1.75931161WSep 14 · 21:10J. Michalik2.15111111113A. Zmijewski1.55661351WSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk1.438980J. Michalik2.501111113
P. Gesiarz10
WSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113WSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852WSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 14 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.3531060A. Zmijewski1.501112113WSep 14 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.8069111142P. Gesiarz1.90111199113WSep 14 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.417311101P. Gesiarz2.5511115123WSep 14 · 17:10P. Gesiarz1.461111113A. Staniczek2.425350LSep 14 · 16:00P. Gesiarz1.28115991D. Maszczynski3.1581111113WSep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.831111113J. Skorupa1.838690
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