TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130046
Played Sep 15Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115711711––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.61
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:51 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
911115711711––
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 3–2 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:51What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1251 vs Baran 1326
Baran
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 20% vs Baran 40%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 20% vs Baran 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Baran -3
Baran
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.20 / Baran 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Baran)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13130046
Karpiuk2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Baran1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKarpiuk3wins
AwayBaran2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiukn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBaran50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk1Baran4n = 5Baran took 4 of 5
S2Karpiuk5Baran0n = 5Karpiuk took 5 of 5
S3Karpiuk3Baran2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
S4Karpiuk3Baran2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKarpiukBaranK − BBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match40.436.8+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 287 vs 67 / 12543.2%53.6%124 / 287 vs 67 / 125Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranKarpiuk 2.20/Baran 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk34911771M. Baran3811511113
LAug 9 · 21:20M. Karpiuk4361111872M. Baran46116711113
WAug 9 · 15:25M. Karpiuk44111111113M. Baran35138951
WJul 21 · 01:50M. Karpiuk4211119113M. Baran32961161
WJul 20 · 20:05M. Karpiuk3961111113M. Baran33117691
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.6511713882M. Karpiuk2.055111111113LSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 17:55J. Michalik1.7181113113M. Karpiuk2.001191181LSep 15 · 01:50M. Karpiuk3.00971291J. Zelezik1.36111110113LSep 15 · 24:30M. Karpiuk2.3861111662K. Gudzik1.53119711113LSep 14 · 23:30M. Karpiuk2.38119891Z. Nocun1.5381111113LSep 14 · 22:10M. Karpiuk2.756760M. Lewczuk1.401111113LSep 14 · 21:00M. Karpiuk2.38113671G. Mucha1.5391111113WSep 14 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.409870M. Karpiuk2.751111113LSep 14 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.671111113M. Karpiuk2.107970
M. Baran10
LSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111LSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641LSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852LSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113
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