TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134891
Played Sep 15Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
1.87
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
111311512101311––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
111311512101311––
H2H Jakub Skorupa 3–3 Mateusz Baran Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1441 vs Baran 1326
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 40% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 60% vs Baran 40%
Skorupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa -1 · Baran +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skorupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 1.87 / Baran 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skorupa)+4.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13134891
Skorupa1.87
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 96 of 292
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 97
Baran1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSkorupa3wins
AwayBaran3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupa66.7%2 of 3
AwayBaran66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa3Baran3n = 6split evenly
S2Skorupa4Baran2n = 6Skorupa took 4 of 6
S3Skorupa3Baran3n = 6split evenly
S4Skorupa3Baran2n = 5Skorupa took 3 of 5
S5Skorupa1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSkorupaBaranS − BBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.541.7+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 648 vs 67 / 12548.3%53.6%313 / 648 vs 67 / 125Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaSkorupa 1.87/Baran 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 26 · 23:30J. Skorupa361111143M. Baran3099120
WAug 26 · 19:10J. Skorupa5310111110113M. Baran4812981272
WAug 7 · 01:30J. Skorupa4111811113M. Baran34611891
LAug 6 · 20:05J. Skorupa29411861M. Baran4211911113
LAug 2 · 01:00J. Skorupa4671181192M. Baran43117113113
LAug 1 · 18:55J. Skorupa50117121192M. Baran53911148113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 15 · 21:05J. Michalik1.8611113113J. Skorupa1.80971181WSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113WSep 15 · 19:30J. Skorupa1.62911912113M. Karpiuk2.06117111082LSep 15 · 18:20J. Skorupa1.868360P. Gesiarz1.831111113LSep 13 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.831111113J. Skorupa1.838690WSep 13 · 01:25D. Maszczynski3.40111060J. Skorupa1.301312113WSep 12 · 23:20K. Gudzik1.6161260J. Skorupa2.201114113LSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680WSep 12 · 21:00G. Mucha1.619141114102J. Skorupa2.201116512123WSep 12 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.61111016131J. Skorupa2.2071218153
M. Baran10
WSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113WSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113LSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641LSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852LSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113
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