TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136324
Played Sep 16Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118511611611––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:43 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeMarian Brunner to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
118511611611––
H2H Marian Brunner 2–1 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Brunner beat Baran 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:43What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1275 vs Baran 1322
Baran
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 0% vs Baran 40%
Baran
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 50% vs Baran 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner -5 · Baran +1
Brunner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 1.95 / Baran 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baran)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13136324
Brunner1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 45 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 48
Baran1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrunner2wins
AwayBaran1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderBrunner leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrunner66.7%2 of 3
AwayBarann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner3Baran0n = 3Brunner took 3 of 3
S2Brunner1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S3Brunner2Baran1n = 3Brunner took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrunnerBaranBrunner − BaranBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match47.741.3+6.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 567 vs 68 / 12749.6%53.5%281 / 567 vs 68 / 127Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBrunner 1.95/Baran 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner341112113M. Baran2791080
WAug 26 · 24:20M. Brunner571115119113M. Baran4871761172
LAug 25 · 20:20M. Brunner521310121162M. Baran491112141113
M. Brunner10
LSep 16 · 24:20J. Skorupa1.641111123M. Brunner2.0488100LSep 15 · 23:05M. Brunner1.838650M. Karpiuk1.811111113LSep 15 · 21:30M. Brunner2.106101141P. Gesiarz1.6011128113LSep 15 · 20:20M. Brunner2.056590J. Skorupa1.661111113LSep 15 · 18:45M. Brunner2.0513101481J. Michalik1.66151212113WSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113WSep 9 · 02:45M. Brunner1.7771111113A. Krezel1.87118891WSep 9 · 01:10M. Brunner1.2111116113A. Barton3.65591151
M. Baran10
WSep 16 · 01:55J. Michalik1.92081141M. Baran1.7211118113WSep 15 · 23:30K. Rybak4.001111681M. Baran1.1871311113LSep 15 · 22:40J. Skorupa1.87111112133M. Baran1.8313510111WSep 15 · 21:55M. Karpiuk2.20911771M. Baran1.6111511113LSep 15 · 19:55J. Michalik1.9211611113M. Baran1.72611641LSep 15 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.85971111113M. Baran1.8511114852LSep 15 · 17:30M. Brunner2.191112113M. Baran1.5591080WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.