TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13135210
Played Sep 16Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112119115––––
Michal Machelski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Michal Machelski below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 49 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 3–7 Michal Machelski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:17What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Machelski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1579 vs Machelski 1320
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 259 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 100% vs Machelski 40%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 80% vs Machelski 40%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +5 · Machelski -1
Kwiatkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.67 / Machelski 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13135210
Kwiatkowski1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Machelski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski3wins
AwayMachelski7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMachelski leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMachelski75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski2Machelski8n = 10Machelski took 8 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski5Machelski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kwiatkowski3Machelski7n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski4Machelski4n = 8split evenly
S5Kwiatkowski3Machelski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiMachelskiK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.845.6−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 242 vs 421 / 113244.2%37.2%107 / 242 vs 421 / 1132Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.67/Machelski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.9%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski37991451M. Machelski45111112113
LAug 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski3811114121M. Machelski4513711143
WAug 13 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski41611111123M. Machelski48117119102
WAug 12 · 19:30K. Kwiatkowski568141211113M. Machelski49111610572
WJul 30 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski511311610113M. Machelski44116111242
LJul 29 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski229760M. Machelski331111113
LJul 26 · 24:00K. Kwiatkowski4211921192M. Machelski49911117113
LJul 25 · 16:00K. Kwiatkowski47711121162M. Machelski44116142113
LJul 4 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski208660M. Machelski331111113
LJul 4 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski5452215572M. Machelski6611201311113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113
M. Machelski10
LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113WSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113LSep 14 · 22:00M. Machelski3.45129551M. Warzecha1.23101111113WSep 11 · 05:05W. Stechly2.907780M. Machelski1.321111113LSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123WSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113LSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 16 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 16 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski1.33A. Skupinski3.25—Sep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.44M. Baran2.63—Sep 16 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Machelski2.10—Sep 17 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski1.80J. Skorupa1.91—Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——
M. Machelski
Sep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10M. Baran1.67—Sep 16 · 18:55M. Machelski2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 16 · 19:40M. Machelski1.67A. Skupinski2.10—Sep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25A. Fomin1.57—Sep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.20J. Skorupa1.61—Sep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.10K. Kwiatkowski1.67—Sep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.10M. Baran1.67—
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