TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138965
Played Sep 16Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811511113711––
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched — 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Andriej Fomin at 71.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 21–16 Andriej Fomin Andriej Fomin has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:27What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Machelski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1314 vs Fomin 1536
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 222 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Fomin 80%
Fomin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -2 · Fomin +4
Fomin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.25 / Fomin 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Fomin)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13138965
Machelski2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Fomin1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 275 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it98% 155 of 158
Up 1–0, closes it90% 213 of 238
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwayFomin6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski50%4 of 8
AwayFominn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski8Fomin2n = 10Machelski took 8 of 10
S2Machelski6Fomin4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S3Machelski2Fomin8n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S4Machelski2Fomin6n = 8Fomin took 6 of 8
S5Machelski2Fomin3n = 5Fomin took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiFominM − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.842.7−2.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 1128 vs 529 / 90336.9%58.6%416 / 1128 vs 529 / 903Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominMachelski 2.25/Fomin 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 01:30M. Machelski4214711101A. Fomin48121113123
WAug 26 · 19:30M. Machelski46111152173A. Fomin54891111152
LJul 29 · 22:55M. Machelski2310670A. Fomin341211113
LJul 29 · 16:55M. Machelski3411441142A. Fomin48911116113
WJul 12 · 24:00M. Machelski4411513153A. Fomin4491111131
LJul 11 · 16:00M. Machelski328111121A. Fomin4011411143
LJun 29 · 06:00M. Machelski4811119892A. Fomin47591111113
LJun 26 · 02:35M. Machelski46111212922A. Fomin482101411113
WJun 25 · 18:10M. Machelski331111113A. Fomin184950
WJun 25 · 02:45M. Machelski50111189113A. Fomin4678111192
M. Machelski10
LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113WSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113LSep 14 · 22:00M. Machelski3.45129551M. Warzecha1.23101111113WSep 11 · 05:05W. Stechly2.907780M. Machelski1.321111113LSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123WSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113LSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171
A. Fomin10
WSep 16 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.20109120A. Fomin1.611211143WSep 13 · 02:45M. Wolny2.056760A. Fomin1.651111113WSep 13 · 01:35A. Fomin1.83101112113O. Jedrzejowski1.831251091WSep 13 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.6271161182A. Fomin2.07118117113LSep 12 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.83111111113A. Fomin1.86581391WSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163LSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:35A. Fomin1.85971111113O. Jedrzejowski1.8511118572WSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny2.25911631A. Fomin1.5711811113LSep 12 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.83912912113A. Fomin1.861110111052
Upcoming Matches
M. Machelski
Sep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10M. Baran1.67—Sep 16 · 18:55M. Machelski2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 16 · 19:40M. Machelski1.67A. Skupinski2.10—Sep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25A. Fomin1.57—Sep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.20J. Skorupa1.61—Sep 16 · 23:45M. Machelski2.10K. Kwiatkowski1.67—Sep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.10M. Baran1.67—
A. Fomin
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