TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119986
Played Sep 12Finished
Krzysztof Malcher
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3111194111416––
Andriej Fomin
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
3111194111416––
H2H Krzysztof Malcher 1–2 Andriej Fomin Krzysztof Malcher has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Fomin beat Malcher 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malcher 1346 vs Fomin 1502
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malcher 80% vs Fomin 60%
Malcher
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malcher 70% vs Fomin 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Malcher +4 · Fomin -1
Malcher
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalcher 2.75 / Fomin 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Fomin)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119986
Malcher2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 25 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Fomin1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 283 of 396
Up 2–0, closes it98% 159 of 162
Up 1–0, closes it89% 221 of 249
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMalcher1wins
AwayFomin2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderFomin leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malcher2Fomin1n = 3Malcher took 2 of 3
S2Malcher2Fomin1n = 3Malcher took 2 of 3
S3Malcher1Fomin2n = 3Fomin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMalcherFominM − FBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match32.034.7−2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalcherFominBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 90 vs 524 / 89737.8%58.4%34 / 90 vs 524 / 897Avg sets wonper match1.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominMalcher 2.75/Fomin 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 12 · 15:35K. Malcher481111610102A. Fomin45551112123
LJul 18 · 22:35K. Malcher122460A. Fomin331111113
WJul 18 · 15:00K. Malcher361111143A. Fomin2668120
K. Malcher10
WSep 12 · 22:25M. Wolny1.75611871K. Malcher1.9511911113WSep 12 · 20:00K. Malcher2.101111113M. Wolny1.606990WSep 12 · 18:45K. Malcher2.9011114113A. Zmijewski1.32971191WSep 12 · 17:35K. Malcher2.7511117113O. Jedrzejowski1.35691191WSep 12 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.4461211892K. Malcher2.621110911113LSep 12 · 15:35K. Malcher2.801111610102A. Fomin1.34551112123LAug 30 · 02:10J. Michalik2.001211113K. Malcher1.7310870LAug 30 · 01:25G. Mucha1.36711118123K. Malcher3.00112511102WAug 29 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.5775111192K. Malcher2.25111164113WAug 29 · 22:35J. Slawomir1.8381111662K. Malcher1.83119811113
A. Fomin10
LSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:35A. Fomin1.85971111113O. Jedrzejowski1.8511118572WSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny2.25911631A. Fomin1.5711811113LSep 12 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.83912912113A. Fomin1.861110111052WSep 12 · 15:35K. Malcher2.801111610102A. Fomin1.34551112123WSep 10 · 02:35A. Barton8.509121141A. Fomin1.0511146113WSep 10 · 01:25A. Fomin1.9111135113A. Zmijewski1.809111151WSep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.003590A. Fomin1.731111113WSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113LSep 9 · 21:20K. Delikatny2.50911117113A. Fomin1.5011461162
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