TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13041674
Played Aug 29Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711511116114911
Krzysztof Malcher
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Malcher to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 86 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Krzysztof Malcher at 69.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 2–4 Krzysztof Malcher Piotr Gesiarz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:57What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Gesiarz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Malcher
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1369 vs Malcher 1353
Gesiarz
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 20% vs Malcher 40%
Malcher
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 30% vs Malcher 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -4 · Malcher +2
Gesiarz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Gesiarz) · live re-read · sealed at 31% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.57 / Malcher 2.25
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Gesiarz)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13041674
Gesiarz1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 59 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66
Malcher2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 22 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGesiarz2wins
AwayMalcher4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderMalcher leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarzn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMalcher75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz2Malcher4n = 6Malcher took 4 of 6
S2Gesiarz2Malcher4n = 6Malcher took 4 of 6
S3Gesiarz5Malcher1n = 6Gesiarz took 5 of 6
S4Gesiarz3Malcher2n = 5Gesiarz took 3 of 5
S5Gesiarz1Malcher3n = 4Malcher took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGesiarzMalcherG − MBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match41.843.7−1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 272 vs 29 / 8246.3%35.4%126 / 272 vs 29 / 82Avg sets wonper match1.91.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.133.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzGesiarz 1.57/Malcher 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Malcher won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 22 · 21:00P. Gesiarz—116271K. Malcher—71111113
WAug 22 · 16:35P. Gesiarz—1121112153K. Malcher—1311910132
WAug 16 · 24:35P. Gesiarz—1111113K. Malcher—2290
LAug 15 · 18:30P. Gesiarz—913111082K. Malcher—1111912113
LJul 18 · 23:20P. Gesiarz—98111272K. Malcher—1111910113
LJul 18 · 17:20P. Gesiarz—69111162K. Malcher—111195113
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142
K. Malcher10
LAug 30 · 02:10J. Michalik2.001211113K. Malcher1.7310870LAug 30 · 01:25G. Mucha1.36711118123K. Malcher3.00112511102WAug 29 · 22:35J. Slawomir1.8381111662K. Malcher1.83119811113WAug 29 · 21:00J. Oracz1.28115111082K. Malcher3.50811912113LAug 29 · 20:05J. Michalik1.731111113K. Malcher2.004860LAug 29 · 19:20G. Mucha1.30121111113K. Malcher3.40145341LAug 29 · 17:20J. Oracz1.281111113K. Malcher3.503780LAug 29 · 16:35P. Gesiarz1.801211113K. Malcher1.9110840LAug 29 · 15:00J. Slawomir1.831111113K. Malcher1.839790WAug 23 · 02:10D. Pyrek1.8381150K. Malcher1.831113113
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