TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12475769
Played Aug 23Finished
Dawid Pyrek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111113511––––
Krzysztof Malcher
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:54 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeDawid Pyrek to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDawid Pyrek above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 59 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Dawid Pyrek at 64.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Pyrek 3–2 Krzysztof Malcher Krzysztof Malcher has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:54What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Malcher
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1358 vs Malcher 1423
Malcher
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 20% vs Malcher 100%
Malcher
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 40% vs Malcher 60%
Malcher
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek -1 · Malcher +5
Malcher
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Malcher) · live re-read · sealed at 36% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malcher form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 1.83 / Malcher 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Malcher)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12475769
Pyrek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Malcher1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePyrek3wins
AwayMalcher2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPyrek leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrek75%3 of 4
AwayMalchern = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek4Malcher1n = 5Pyrek took 4 of 5
S2Pyrek1Malcher4n = 5Malcher took 4 of 5
S3Pyrek4Malcher1n = 5Pyrek took 4 of 5
S4Pyrek4Malcher1n = 5Pyrek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPyrekMalcherP − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match39.039.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime384 / 784 vs 26 / 7349%35.6%384 / 784 vs 26 / 73Avg sets wonper match1.91.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.433.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalcherPyrek 1.83/Malcher 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Malcher · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Malcher won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 22 · 20:05D. Pyrek—71251112K. Malcher—1110119113
WJul 11 · 01:35D. Pyrek—11811123K. Malcher—7118101
LJul 10 · 19:35D. Pyrek—11611482K. Malcher—811811113
WJul 6 · 15:50D. Pyrek—11411113K. Malcher—611371
WJul 2 · 19:55D. Pyrek—11711113K. Malcher—511961
D. Pyrek10
WSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.45116981C. Pawlik1.2581111113LSep 5 · 24:00D. Pyrek2.313450A. Zmijewski1.521111113WSep 4 · 22:25D. Pyrek1.95811611123M. Krutak1.70117115102LSep 4 · 21:10D. Pyrek3.60741381J. Oracz1.23111111113WSep 4 · 20:00M. Krutak1.7561090D. Pyrek1.951112113LSep 4 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.531211113D. Pyrek2.3810430LSep 4 · 18:25D. Pyrek1.71911101192A. Kubiak2.00116124113LSep 4 · 16:50D. Pyrek3.6551181122J. Oracz1.22118114113LSep 4 · 16:00A. Zmijewski1.6011118113D. Pyrek2.20811181
K. Malcher10
LAug 30 · 02:10J. Michalik2.001211113K. Malcher1.7310870LAug 30 · 01:25G. Mucha1.36711118123K. Malcher3.00112511102WAug 29 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.5775111192K. Malcher2.25111164113WAug 29 · 22:35J. Slawomir1.8381111662K. Malcher1.83119811113WAug 29 · 21:00J. Oracz1.28115111082K. Malcher3.50811912113LAug 29 · 20:05J. Michalik1.731111113K. Malcher2.004860LAug 29 · 19:20G. Mucha1.30121111113K. Malcher3.40145341LAug 29 · 17:20J. Oracz1.281111113K. Malcher3.503780LAug 29 · 16:35P. Gesiarz1.801211113K. Malcher1.9110840LAug 29 · 15:00J. Slawomir1.831111113K. Malcher1.839790
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