TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13079701
Played Sep 5Finished
Dawid Pyrek
Home
3.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611911811––
Cezary Pawlik
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:28 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
118611911811––
H2H Dawid Pyrek 5–16 Cezary Pawlik Dawid Pyrek has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (73%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1337 vs Pawlik 1574
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 237 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 40% vs Pawlik 80%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 20% vs Pawlik 60%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek -1 · Pawlik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pyrek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 3.45 / Pawlik 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Pawlik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13079701
Pyrek3.45
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog35% won 63 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Pawlik1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it81% 89 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePyrek2wins
AwayPawlik8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPawlik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek2Pawlik7n = 9Pawlik took 7 of 9
S2Pyrek3Pawlik6n = 9Pawlik took 6 of 9
S3Pyrek4Pawlik5n = 9Pawlik took 5 of 9
S4Pyrek1Pawlik5n = 6Pawlik took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPyrekPawlikPyrek − PawlikBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match32.238.3−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 777 vs 270 / 46449%58.2%381 / 777 vs 270 / 464Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPyrek 3.45/Pawlik 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 4 · 19:10D. Pyrek—10430C. Pawlik—1211113
LAug 22 · 24:45D. Pyrek—13980C. Pawlik—1511113
WAug 21 · 18:45D. Pyrek—1113112113C. Pawlik—41541192
LAug 8 · 24:45D. Pyrek—411661C. Pawlik—11211113
LAug 7 · 18:45D. Pyrek—771171C. Pawlik—11119113
LAug 2 · 01:10D. Pyrek—11640C. Pawlik—1311113
LAug 1 · 19:10D. Pyrek—116761C. Pawlik—81111113
LMay 16 · 24:00D. Pyrek—71111852C. Pawlik—113811113
WMay 15 · 16:00D. Pyrek—101111113C. Pawlik—127781
D. Pyrek10
WSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 24:00D. Pyrek2.313450A. Zmijewski1.521111113WSep 4 · 22:25D. Pyrek1.95811611123M. Krutak1.70117115102LSep 4 · 21:10D. Pyrek3.60741381J. Oracz1.23111111113WSep 4 · 20:00M. Krutak1.7561090D. Pyrek1.951112113LSep 4 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.531211113D. Pyrek2.3810430LSep 4 · 18:25D. Pyrek1.71911101192A. Kubiak2.00116124113LSep 4 · 16:50D. Pyrek3.6551181122J. Oracz1.22118114113LSep 4 · 16:00A. Zmijewski1.6011118113D. Pyrek2.20811181LAug 23 · 02:10D. Pyrek1.8381150K. Malcher1.831113113
C. Pawlik10
WSep 6 · 02:00A. Krezel2.754611131C. Pawlik1.3711117153LSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182LSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113LSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113WSep 5 · 22:00K. Gudzik2.8569131172C. Pawlik1.361111115113WSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152WSep 5 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.761511113A. Fomin1.9513690LSep 5 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.428111051K. Gudzik2.6011512113WSep 5 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.461111113A. Krezel2.474940WSep 4 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.531211113D. Pyrek2.3810430
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