TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13042036
Played Aug 30Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111121158111210
Krzysztof Malcher
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 88 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 61.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 5–1 Krzysztof Malcher Krzysztof Malcher has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:55What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Mucha
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1337 vs Malcher 1352
Malcher
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 80% vs Malcher 60%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 60% vs Malcher 40%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +3 · Malcher +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malcher form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.36 / Malcher 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Mucha)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13042036
Mucha1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 69 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 51 of 65
Malcher3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 22 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMucha5wins
AwayMalcher1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMucha leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha100%4 of 4
AwayMalchern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha4Malcher2n = 6Mucha took 4 of 6
S2Mucha3Malcher3n = 6split evenly
S3Mucha4Malcher2n = 6Mucha took 4 of 6
S4Mucha3Malcher1n = 4Mucha took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMuchaMalcherMucha − MalcherBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match39.031.5+7.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 230 vs 30 / 8349.1%36.1%113 / 230 vs 30 / 83Avg sets wonper match1.91.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.133.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.36/Malcher 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 29 · 19:20G. Mucha—121111113K. Malcher—145341
WAug 15 · 21:20G. Mucha—1111113K. Malcher—8570
LAug 15 · 15:25G. Mucha—7580K. Malcher—1111113
WJul 13 · 15:50G. Mucha—1110117113K. Malcher—71221162
WJun 21 · 01:45G. Mucha—11811113K. Malcher—911861
WJun 20 · 16:15G. Mucha—13119123K. Malcher—11611101
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580
K. Malcher10
LAug 30 · 02:10J. Michalik2.001211113K. Malcher1.7310870WAug 29 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.5775111192K. Malcher2.25111164113WAug 29 · 22:35J. Slawomir1.8381111662K. Malcher1.83119811113WAug 29 · 21:00J. Oracz1.28115111082K. Malcher3.50811912113LAug 29 · 20:05J. Michalik1.731111113K. Malcher2.004860LAug 29 · 19:20G. Mucha1.30121111113K. Malcher3.40145341LAug 29 · 17:20J. Oracz1.281111113K. Malcher3.503780LAug 29 · 16:35P. Gesiarz1.801211113K. Malcher1.9110840LAug 29 · 15:00J. Slawomir1.831111113K. Malcher1.839790WAug 23 · 02:10D. Pyrek1.8381150K. Malcher1.831113113
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