TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13041685
Played Aug 29Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118116––––
Krzysztof Malcher
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Malcher to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Krzysztof Malcher at 58.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 0–1 Krzysztof Malcher Jerzy Michalik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1262 vs Malcher 1364
Malcher
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 20% vs Malcher 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 30% vs Malcher 50%
Malcher
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -4 · Malcher -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malcher form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.73 / Malcher 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalik)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13041685
Michalik1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 150 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it78% 110 of 141
Malcher2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 22 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMichalik0wins
AwayMalcher1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMalcher leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMichalikMalcherMichalik − MalcherBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.052.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime533 / 1150 vs 27 / 7946.4%34.2%533 / 1150 vs 27 / 79Avg sets wonper match1.91.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.332.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.73/Malcher 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 2 · 17:55J. Michalik—118111512K. Malcher—611717113
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113
K. Malcher10
LAug 30 · 02:10J. Michalik2.001211113K. Malcher1.7310870LAug 30 · 01:25G. Mucha1.36711118123K. Malcher3.00112511102WAug 29 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.5775111192K. Malcher2.25111164113WAug 29 · 22:35J. Slawomir1.8381111662K. Malcher1.83119811113WAug 29 · 21:00J. Oracz1.28115111082K. Malcher3.50811912113LAug 29 · 19:20G. Mucha1.30121111113K. Malcher3.40145341LAug 29 · 17:20J. Oracz1.281111113K. Malcher3.503780LAug 29 · 16:35P. Gesiarz1.801211113K. Malcher1.9110840LAug 29 · 15:00J. Slawomir1.831111113K. Malcher1.839790WAug 23 · 02:10D. Pyrek1.8381150K. Malcher1.831113113
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalik1 of 1 neutral
K. Malcher
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