TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120856
Played Sep 13Finished
Cezary Pawlik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711118611117811
Andriej Fomin
Away
2.07
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
711118611117811
H2H Cezary Pawlik 10–10 Andriej Fomin Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pawlik beat Fomin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:54What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (56%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1520 vs Fomin 1501
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Fomin 60%
Fomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 40% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -2 · Fomin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.62 / Fomin 2.07
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Pawlik)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13120856
Pawlik1.62
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 122 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it81% 95 of 118
Fomin2.07
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 64 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back34% 25 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayFomin5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik100%4 of 4
AwayFomin83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S2Pawlik5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S3Pawlik5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S4Pawlik4Fomin2n = 6Pawlik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikFominP − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.438.9−0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikFominBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 493 vs 525 / 89958.2%58.4%287 / 493 vs 525 / 899Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.62/Fomin 2.07
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik4311713123A. Fomin4191111101
LSep 6 · 01:10C. Pawlik4358111182A. Fomin49111188113
WSep 5 · 19:10C. Pawlik371511113A. Fomin2813690
WAug 29 · 22:25C. Pawlik47131112113A. Fomin391171471
WAug 29 · 20:00C. Pawlik48711811113A. Fomin4211511692
WAug 9 · 24:45C. Pawlik351113113A. Fomin2881190
LAug 8 · 18:45C. Pawlik2691160A. Fomin351113113
LJun 28 · 24:45C. Pawlik396101581A. Fomin47111213113
LJun 27 · 18:45C. Pawlik42101111101A. Fomin4612913123
LJun 21 · 02:20C. Pawlik2468100A. Fomin341111123
C. Pawlik10
WSep 13 · 02:00K. Malcher3.407470C. Pawlik1.241111113WSep 13 · 01:10M. Wolny2.859890C. Pawlik1.341111113LSep 12 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.6191115372O. Jedrzejowski2.101171311113LSep 12 · 22:00A. Zmijewski2.07611811123C. Pawlik1.62116115102WSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.66811101132A. Zmijewski2.01118127113LSep 12 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.4461211892K. Malcher2.621110911113WSep 12 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.701311113O. Jedrzejowski2.0011580LSep 12 · 02:00J. Oracz1.691191110113C. Pawlik1.9771171282
A. Fomin10
WSep 13 · 01:35A. Fomin1.83101112113O. Jedrzejowski1.831251091LSep 12 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.83111111113A. Fomin1.86581391WSep 12 · 21:35K. Malcher2.753114141A. Fomin1.4011911163LSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:35A. Fomin1.85971111113O. Jedrzejowski1.8511118572WSep 12 · 18:25M. Wolny2.25911631A. Fomin1.5711811113LSep 12 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.83912912113A. Fomin1.861110111052WSep 12 · 15:35K. Malcher2.801111610102A. Fomin1.34551112123WSep 10 · 02:35A. Barton8.509121141A. Fomin1.0511146113WSep 10 · 01:25A. Fomin1.9111135113A. Zmijewski1.809111151
Upcoming Matches
C. Pawlik
Nothing scheduled
A. Fomin
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