TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119978
Played Sep 12Finished
Cezary Pawlik
Home
1.61
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111171513311711
Oskar Jedrzejowski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
9111171513311711
H2H Cezary Pawlik 10–11 Oskar Jedrzejowski Cezary Pawlik has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Pawlik beat Jedrzejowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (57%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1537 vs Jedrzejowski 1355
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Jedrzejowski 20%
Pawlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 50% vs Jedrzejowski 30%
Pawlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -1 · Jedrzejowski -4
Jedrzejowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jedrzejowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.61 / Jedrzejowski 2.10
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Pawlik)+3.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119978
Pawlik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 126 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it92% 73 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 122
Jedrzejowski2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 34 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik6wins
AwayJedrzejowski4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik83.3%5 of 6
AwayJedrzejowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik6Jedrzejowski4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S2Pawlik5Jedrzejowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Pawlik6Jedrzejowski4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik4Jedrzejowski4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikJedrzejowskiP − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.8+2.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikJedrzejowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 492 vs 123 / 22558.3%54.7%287 / 492 vs 123 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.61/Jedrzejowski 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.4%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jedrzejowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 15:10C. Pawlik351311113O. Jedrzejowski2411580
LSep 12 · 24:25C. Pawlik401191371O. Jedrzejowski4361115113
LSep 11 · 20:45C. Pawlik409119111O. Jedrzejowski4411911133
WAug 21 · 21:35C. Pawlik5013817123O. Jedrzejowski47111115101
LAug 21 · 15:35C. Pawlik371071191O. Jedrzejowski4112117113
LAug 14 · 23:35C. Pawlik29511851O. Jedrzejowski3911611113
WAug 14 · 17:35C. Pawlik3811511113O. Jedrzejowski31511961
WAug 1 · 24:25C. Pawlik3911611113O. Jedrzejowski27211681
WJul 31 · 20:45C. Pawlik561312911113O. Jedrzejowski51151011872
WJul 17 · 22:50C. Pawlik401511143O. Jedrzejowski31136120
C. Pawlik10
LSep 12 · 22:00A. Zmijewski2.07611811123C. Pawlik1.62116115102WSep 12 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.6211713123A. Fomin2.0791111101WSep 12 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.361111113M. Wolny2.756140LSep 12 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.66811101132A. Zmijewski2.01118127113LSep 12 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.4461211892K. Malcher2.621110911113WSep 12 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.701311113O. Jedrzejowski2.0011580LSep 12 · 02:00J. Oracz1.691191110113C. Pawlik1.9771171282WSep 12 · 01:10D. Pyrek2.954370C. Pawlik1.321111113LSep 12 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.651191371O. Jedrzejowski2.0561115113WSep 11 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.491111113M. Wozniczka2.333530
O. Jedrzejowski10
WSep 12 · 23:35K. Malcher2.753260O. Jedrzejowski1.361111113LSep 12 · 21:10M. Wolny2.35512117113O. Jedrzejowski1.48111071162LSep 12 · 20:20A. Zmijewski1.831112118113O. Jedrzejowski1.83131021142LSep 12 · 19:35A. Fomin1.85971111113O. Jedrzejowski1.8511118572LSep 12 · 17:35K. Malcher2.7511117113O. Jedrzejowski1.35691191WSep 12 · 16:50M. Wolny2.353860O. Jedrzejowski1.481111113LSep 12 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.701311113O. Jedrzejowski2.0011580LSep 12 · 02:45D. Pyrek2.3511814113O. Jedrzejowski1.537111281WSep 12 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski1.691111113M. Wozniczka1.966670WSep 12 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.651191371O. Jedrzejowski2.0561115113
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